\u3000\u3000 Qingdao Haier Biomedical Co.Ltd(688139) (688139)
Event: the company released the forecast of 2021 annual report, and the performance met expectations. The company is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 800-890 million in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 109.77% ~ 134.77%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was RMB 400-480 million, with a year-on-year increase of 28.33% to 53.33%. The large amount of non recurring items is mainly the equity transfer price obtained by the company from the sale of its subsidiary mesa in Q1. If calculated according to the median value of the interval, the company's net profit deducted from non parent company in 2021 will be about 440 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 40%; 21q4 net profit deducted from non parent company was about 120 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 35%.
There are many disturbing factors affecting the growth rate of the company's deduction of non net profit in the reporting period. We expect the actual growth rate of the company's endogenous business to be significantly higher than that at the statement end. The main basis includes: (1) according to the company's 20-year annual report, it is estimated that there may be part of the investment income from mesa recognized in accordance with the equity method in 20q4, forming a "high base"; (2) According to the company's announcement, the company expects to withdraw about 40 million yuan of equity incentive expenses in 21 years, and 18.4544 million yuan has been withdrawn in 21q3. Therefore, it is expected that there will be about 20 million yuan of equity incentive expenses in 21q4. Therefore, it can be reasonably inferred that the growth rate of the company's endogenous business in the whole year of 21 / 21q4 is expected to be significantly higher than 40% / 35%, and the calculation of the specific growth rate still needs to wait for the disclosure of the detailed data in the subsequent annual report.
The recovery of Internet of things business, continuous expansion of categories and new products entering the harvest period are expected to drive the company's endogenous performance to continue the high growth trend in the future. At present, the market overestimates the company's epidemic benefit attribute to a certain extent, and ignores the impact on the company's Internet of things business under the background of covid-19 vaccination as the focus of health work in 21 years. The gradual recovery of subsequent Internet of things business will provide a solid foundation for the company's high growth. In addition, focusing on the goal of building a comprehensive biosafety solution, the company is continuously increasing its R & D investment in new products and solutions. According to the company's announcement, the company has independently developed programmed cooler, new series carbon dioxide incubator, new series centrifuge, autoclave and other products around the sample safety segmentation scenarios such as sample pretreatment, biological culture and cell preparation. Among them, the centrifuge has passed the acceptance of the "100 cities and 100 parks" project of the Ministry of science and technology. Relying on the competitiveness of comprehensive schemes, new products and schemes are launched in Ruijin Hospital, Beijing Zhifei Lvzhu, China University of science and technology and other users. In the follow-up, the company will continue to expand around the existing scenes, and carry out the layout of R & D pipelines in biological culture, biological centrifugal preparation, sample automation and other new industries.
Investment suggestion: buy - a investment rating. We expect that the revenue growth rate of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 52.7%, 37.4% and 36.5% respectively, and the net profit growth rate will be 122.2%, - 22.2% and 42.1% respectively, with outstanding growth; Give an investment rating of buy-a. The six-month target price is 83.1 yuan, equivalent to 40 times the dynamic P / E ratio in 2022.
Risk warning: the company's subsequent orders are not as expected; The volume of new products is less than expected.
