\u3000\u3000 Chengdu Kanghua Biological Products Co.Ltd(300841) (300841)
Company performance: the company released the performance forecast. It is estimated that the net profit in 2021 will be 810 million to 840 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 98.0% to 105.9%, and the net profit after deduction will be 540 million to 570 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 33.5% to 41.5%. The growth range of net profit after deduction is in line with our expectations. The non recurring loss is mainly caused by the change in the fair value of our participation in Aibo Jinyu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(600201) (shareholding ratio of 2.3%). Based on this calculation, the net profit of 21q4 in a single quarter was 220 million yuan to 260 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 248.8% to 298.5%, and the net profit after deducting non-profit was 190 million yuan to 230 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 223.3% to 276.4%.
Release of new production capacity and promote performance growth: the company's Q4 increased significantly year-on-year after deducting non profits. On the one hand, we believe that after the company's new production capacity of human diploid cell rabies vaccine was approved in May 2021 (the original production capacity was 3 million units / year and the production capacity after technical transformation was 5 million units / year), Q4 achieved growth at the sales end; On the other hand, the bidding price of the company's products has also increased in some provinces, and the increase of both volume and price has promoted the growth of performance. Looking forward to the future, the safety advantage of human diploid rabies vaccine is significant, which will still be in short supply, and the increase of technological transformation capacity will be fully reflected in 2022. In addition, the new 6 million pieces / year capacity raised by IPO will be put into operation in 2023, and the company will continue to benefit from the promotion of capacity growth.
The amount of pet vaccine began to increase in 2022, and the vaccine products under development are rich: (1) Hangzhou Youben signed an agreement with the company's subsidiaries to sell the company's pet rabies vaccine as an agent. The purchase amount will be 16 million yuan in 2022. In the future, the annual growth of sales task will not be lower than the average growth rate of the industry, and not higher than twice the average growth rate of the industry, And since 2023, the annual minimum sales growth rate shall not be less than 30%. It is expected that the follow-up company's pet vaccine will become a new growth point. (2) Focusing on the construction of vaccine R & D platform, the company has arranged recombinant protein VLP vaccine platform, polysaccharide protein combined vaccine platform, live attenuated vaccine platform, inactivated vaccine platform, new vaccine adjuvant platform, etc. the projects under research include hexavalent norovirus vaccine, tetravalent nasal spray influenza vaccine, rotavirus genetic engineering vaccine, diphtheria genetic engineering vaccine, etc. Abundant products under research will provide impetus for future growth.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: we expect the company to record net profits of 830 million yuan, 880 million yuan and 1.33 billion yuan respectively in 2021, 2022 and 2023, with yoy + 102.1%, + 6.8% and 50.6%, EPS of 9.2 yuan, 9.8 yuan and 14.7 yuan respectively, corresponding to PE of 24x, 22x and 15x respectively. The valuation is reasonable and the performance increases rapidly. We maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: production capacity improvement is less than expected, product price reduction, vaccine safety accidents
