\u3000\u3000 Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc.China(688012) (688012)
According to the performance forecast released by the company, the operating revenue is expected to be 3.108 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of about 36.73%; In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 950-1.03 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 93.01% – 109.26%; In 2021, the net profit deducted from non parent company was 280-330 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 1100.72% – 1315.13%; In 2021, the amount of newly signed orders was 4.13 billion yuan, an increase of about 90.5% year-on-year.
Key points supporting rating
Profitability increased significantly, and the company ushered in a profit turning point. The company announced that the deduction of non net profit was 23.32 million yuan in 2020 and 280-330 million yuan in 2021. The corresponding net profit margins in 2020 and 2021 were 1% and 10% respectively. If the equity incentive fee is added back, the non-profit will be deducted by 146 million yuan in 2020, with a net interest rate of 6%. In 2021, the non-profit will be deducted by 493-543 million yuan, with a net profit margin of about 17%, an increase of 10 percentage points year-on-year, which is closer and closer to the average profit level of mature semiconductor equipment enterprises outside China. The company’s profitability increased significantly, of which 6 percentage points benefited from the optimization of business structure, that is, the proportion of etching equipment revenue with a gross profit margin of 44% continued to increase significantly. At the same time, MOCVD gross profit margin also rebounded by 14 percentage points to a reasonable level compared with the previous year, and 3 percentage points was due to the decline of expense rate during sales due to scale effect.
Sufficient orders ensure continued high performance growth in 2022. The amount of new orders signed by the company in 2021 was 4.13 billion yuan, an increase of about 90.5% year-on-year. The new orders nearly doubled, both the contribution of etching equipment orders and the recovery of MOCVD orders. However, from the perspective of structural proportion, etching equipment is still the main part of new orders. In 2021, the revenue of etching equipment was 2.004 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 55%. According to the orders and the trend of fab equipment procurement industry, the sales revenue of etching equipment in 2022 is likely to accelerate.
Layout many new products and enter the harvest period one after another. ICP shipments in 2021 exceeded expectations, based on the Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc.China(688012) ICP etching equipment primo NANOVA on June 9, 2021 ® The successful delivery of the 100th reaction chamber marks a new milestone in the business development of ICP etching products. Secondly, the company has successively arranged new products such as har, double Damascus, LPCVD and EPI (which can cover about 25% of the value of wafer production line equipment in total) which are also the core links of the previous process equipment. It is expected to make new progress and breakthroughs in 2022.
Profit forecast
In view of the continuous improvement of the company’s profitability and the high growth of orders driven by the active expansion of global wafer factories, the net profit of RMB 976 million, RMB 1044 million and RMB 1252 million from 2021 to 2023 were raised to maintain the buy rating.
Main risks of rating
Valuation fluctuation risk of semiconductor sector; The downstream demand of parts is affected by non market factors; The risk of R & D progress falling short of expectations or being exceeded.
