\u3000\u3000 Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) (002821)
Event: the company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is expected to achieve revenue of 4.505 billion yuan to 4.662 billion yuan (+ 43% ~ + 48% YoY), net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.040 billion yuan to 1.076 billion yuan (+ 44% ~ + 49% YoY), and deduct non net profit of 908 million yuan to 940 million yuan (+ 41% ~ + 46% YoY); Excluding the impact of exchange rate, the company’s revenue in 2021 is expected to increase by 52% – 57% year-on-year, and the performance is in line with market expectations.
Growth accelerated in 2021q4, with strong performance of small molecule business. In 2021q4, the company expects to achieve revenue of 1.675 billion yuan to 1.730 billion yuan (+ 57% ~ + 62% YoY), net profit attributable to the parent company of 345 million yuan to 381 million yuan (+ 60% ~ + 77% YoY), and deduct non net profit of 312 million yuan to 344 million yuan (+ 66% ~ + 84% YoY); Excluding the impact of exchange rate, the revenue of 2021q4 company is expected to increase by 62% – 67% year-on-year. The growth of 2021q4 company has accelerated, and the growth rate of profit side is significantly higher than that of revenue side. We expect that it is mainly due to the gradual delivery of newly signed large orders of 5.8 billion yuan in November 21, the high growth of conventional small molecule orders and the continuous improvement of order added value. In the whole year and the fourth quarter of 2021, the small molecule income of the company increased by 45% and 65% year-on-year respectively, and the year-on-year growth rate after excluding the influence of exchange rate was 50% and 70% respectively.
The added value of orders continues to increase + new production capacity is released, and small molecules can continue to grow at a high rate. 2021h2 company released about 1390m3 of capacity in Tianjin, Dunhua and other regions, and the new capacity was delivered successively, ensuring the rapid growth of small molecule business. In 2022, the company expects to increase the production capacity of 1500m3 in Dunhua and Zhenjiang bases. According to our statistical analysis, the added value of orders of the company has increased in recent years, and the revenue per ton has increased from 7.13 million yuan / ton in 2013 to 15.60 million yuan / ton in 2020, which is significantly higher than that of peers in the same period. The performance elasticity of new capacity is worth looking forward to.
The rapid growth of emerging businesses has opened the long-term ceiling. In 2021, the revenue of the company’s emerging business segment increased by more than 65% year-on-year, and more than 70% year-on-year after excluding the impact of exchange rate. 1) Chemical macromolecules: in 2021h1, the revenue side achieved a rapid growth of + 98.39% year-on-year. The company is focusing on promoting R & D and capacity construction in the field of oligonucleotide cdmo. 2) Preparation business: achieve rapid and high-quality growth. The revenue end in 2021h1 is + 82.72% year-on-year. More than 40% of orders come from overseas customers and undertake 40 API + Preparation projects. 3) Clinical cro: after the merger and acquisition of Guanqin pharmaceutical, the integration effect is remarkable. In 2021h1, 66 project contracts (40 innovative drug projects) were signed, and the orders on hand are 100 million yuan + RMB; At the same time, in collaboration with the group and Youji pharmaceutical, we have successfully undertaken the integrated service projects from CMC, pharmacodynamics, pharmacology and toxicology to preclinical ind registration and declaration. 4) Biological macromolecules: it is expected to take the lead in the field of ADC. The construction of Shanghai Jinshan ADC pilot test and early commercial production workshop is being promoted, which is expected to open up the service capacity from payload, linker to antibody.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: considering the gradual delivery of small molecule and large orders of about 5.8 billion yuan and the entry of emerging businesses into the fast lane, we raised the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company for 21-23 years to 1.061/19.80/2.040 billion yuan (3.88% / 49.15% / 18.68% higher than the previous forecast respectively), with a year-on-year increase of 47% / 87% / 3% respectively, and the current price corresponds to 87 / 47 / 45 times of PE for 21-23 years, Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the volume of commercial orders is less than expected; The decline in sales of commercial products led to a decline in the scale of orders.
