\u3000\u3000 Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) (600809)
Event: Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) issued the announcement on the advance increase of annual performance in 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to parent company will reach 5.234-5.542 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 70% - 80%, deducting the net profit not attributable to parent company of 5.173-5.477 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 70% - 80%. The annual performance basically meets the market expectation. According to the median / upper limit of the performance forecast, it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q4 in a single quarter is 509 / 663 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 17.64% / + 7.28%.
In 2021, the structure will be upgraded and the profit elasticity will continue. It is estimated that the revenue growth in the 21st year exceeds the target at the beginning of the year. The profit elasticity is obvious due to the structural upgrading and cost control throughout the year. Q4 growth has slowed down, which is estimated to be related to the company's active control of goods, and the cost investment has increased for the coming year. In terms of product revenue, the blue and white series led the structural upgrading, with an obvious growth rate in 21 years. The growth rate of green 20 was relatively fast, and the revival version was in the cultivation period, with a relatively stable performance. The growth rate of Q4 slowed down in a single quarter, mainly due to the superposition of goods control and the high volume base of green 20 in the same period of last year. Bofen has high cost performance and strong demand. Since the second half of the year, the company has contracted its investment in Bofen. It is estimated that the growth rate of Bofen slowed down significantly in the third and fourth quarters. Laobaifen is dominated by mass consumption in Shanxi and surrounding markets. Q3 has a rapid growth rate. Q4 has a high base due to the end of the impact of the epidemic in the same period of last year, and the growth rate is estimated to be reduced. Panama's performance is relatively stable throughout the year, with Zhuyeqing and Xinghua village accounting for a relatively low proportion in 21 years, and it is expected to continue to make efforts in the follow-up.
The nationwide distribution has achieved remarkable results, with a significant increase in East and South China. It is estimated that the income inside / outside the province will achieve high growth in 21 years, and the market outside the province will develop faster and account for a higher proportion than that inside the province. According to the company's 2021 global dealer conference, in 2021, the national market with a scale of more than 100 million yuan has reached 28, with 2944 dealers and more than 1 million controllable terminal outlets. In terms of subregions, the average growth rate of market revenue in the south of the Yangtze River has reached 60%, of which the growth rate of Jiangsu market is estimated to reach 50% +. Due to the low base of the Pearl River Delta market, the growth is relatively significant, and it is estimated that the growth of Guangdong market is close to doubling. The growth of Henan in the old base market is relatively stable, which is estimated to be related to the impact of epidemic and flood in 21 years. The growth rate of Shandong market is relatively obvious, and Beijing, Tianjin and Inner Mongolia also maintain steady growth.
In the peak season of the Spring Festival, the dynamic sales are good, making a good start, and the certainty is high. At present, it is the peak season of the Spring Festival, and the sales momentum in the province is good. According to the channel feedback, the overall payment collection progress is 20-30%, the delivery progress is about 20%, and the inventory level is within half a month. Although the Henan market was affected by the epidemic in early January, the current mobile sales have gradually recovered and the impact is estimated to be limited. It is expected that 22q1 is likely to make a good start as a whole. Throughout the year, the company implements the quota system. Blue and white is an important starting point for the improvement of structure and the promotion of nationalization. Bofen focuses on quantity control, and bamboo leaf green will also increase its development. After the new chairman takes over, it is expected that the strategic direction will continue. Under the reform of marketing organization, the effect of channel flattening is obvious. The enrichment and rejuvenation of the sales team will help to enhance intensive cultivation, and the certainty of 22-year high growth is high.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: according to the performance forecast, the net profit forecast for 21 years is lowered to 5.51 billion (compared with the previous forecast - 5.3%), and the net profit forecast for 22-23 years is maintained at 7.50/9.65 billion, with the corresponding EPS of 4.52/6.15/7.91 yuan. The corresponding P / E of the current stock price is 59 / 44 / 34 times, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the growth of blue and white series is less than expected, and the market expansion outside the province is less than expected.
