\u3000\u3000 Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) (600809)
Events
The company issued a performance announcement: in 2021, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 5.234-5.542 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 70% - 80%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was RMB 5.173-5.477 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 70% - 80%. Among them, 21q4 company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.55-6.63 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of - 42.52% to + 7.32%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 298-602 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of - 48.81% to + 3.39%.
Key investment points
Product: the performance in 2021 is in line with expectations, and blue and white play high and high to promote structural upgrading
2021 is the year of brand development. The company adheres to the strategy of controlling the low end, holding high the blue and white, and strengthening the waist. It is estimated that the revenue of blue and white series will account for more than 35% and that of medium and high-end products will account for more than 50% in 2021. Specifically:
1) blue and white series: 21q4 blue and white series continues to maintain a high growth rate, of which the growth rate is nearly doubled from October to November. Considering that Qing 30 takes price rigidity as the first goal, it will continue to accelerate the construction through omni-channel quota system + opinion leader / circle marketing + flagship store in the future; Qing 20 continued the high growth trend in the early stage and continued to increase in large quantities;
2) Bofen: the company has strictly controlled the volume since the second half of the year. Under further strict control, the growth rate of 21q4 is expected to slow down compared with the first three quarters, but the main line of structural upgrading will not be changed (boosting the improvement of profit end in the later stage);
3) Panama: 21q4 Panama's revenue growth is expected to remain flat with the first three quarters and achieve steady improvement;
4) laobaifen: due to the high base of laobaifen series products last year, the growth rate of 21q4 revenue is expected to further slow down on the basis of 60-70% in the first three quarters;
5) Xinghua Village: the estimated income of 21q1-3 Xinghua village is close to 500 million, and it is estimated that it will be at least 600 million + in the whole year;
6) liquor preparation: as one of the two wheeled products, the company has upgraded the distribution of Zhuyeqing this year. The growth rate of 21q1-3 is expected to be about 80-90%, and it is expected to complete 1 billion + in the whole year. In 2022, the company will continue to adhere to the product strategy of taking blue and white series as the development focus, nationalizing Panama and blue and white 25 waist products, and increasing the price of Bofen. It is expected that the proportion of blue and white series products may reach 45%, and the profitability will be steadily improved.
Channel: the market around Shanxi has developed rapidly, and the market south of the Yangtze River has generally doubled under the low base
In 2021, the market of the company in the province benefited from the economic improvement + wedding banquet subsidy, and the structure and scale achieved rapid development; The central Shanxi sector has generally achieved rapid development through deep cultivation of advantageous markets; Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Anhui and Henan have generally doubled. In 2022, the company will continue to refine and deeply cultivate the sector around Shanxi, and continue to focus on developing the market south of the Yangtze River.
Four advantages push Fenjiu into a new stage of development: in 2021, the 100 million yuan Fenjiu market increased from 8 in 2017 to 28, the number of dealers increased from less than 1000 in 2017 to 2944, the number of terminal controls increased from less than 10000 in 2017 to 1 million, the average growth rate of the market south of the Yangtze River was 60%, and the cumulative growth rate of Qinghua Fenjiu in five years exceeded 4 times, The overall brand influence of Fen Liquor continued to improve.
Expenses: 21q4 is the expense settlement period, which is the main reason for the low net interest rate
The profit margin of 21q4 is still at a low position throughout the year. The main reason is that the fourth quarter is often the expense settlement period, and in the stage of large-scale expansion, the trend is to increase the investment of expenses. Therefore, the expense rate has remained stable and rising in recent years. In the future, with the improvement of structure and scale, the cost ratio will continue to increase in the future, and the overall cost rate will tend to be stable.
A good start: the payment and delivery are smooth, and the moving sales are generally good, laying the foundation for a good start
In 2022, the company's payment and dynamic sales are as follows: 1) payment: Shandong and other places feedback that the current average payment collection progress is about 30-40%, of which the progress in Henan is slightly slow; 2) Shipment: the shipment is basically completed in major regions; 3) Inventory: keep a low level as a whole; 4) Rating: the recent rating remains stable, of which the rating of blue and white 20 and Fuxing version are about 380 / 850 + yuan respectively; 5) Mobile sales: Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) mobile sales generally outperform competitive products in major regions, and the impact of the epidemic on its mobile sales is limited.
Development direction: take the promotion of brand power as the first, and anchor the goal of "one third of the world"
Primary objective: brand promotion; Overall marketing plan: 133238. The company will achieve the primary goal of brand improvement through four "focus" + four "persistence": 1) focus on market structure optimization, product structure optimization, quality optimization and management improvement; We will strengthen strategic focus, deepen the reform of state-owned enterprises and persist in strengthening risk management. In the next step, Fenjiu marketing will focus on the overall reform strategy of "133238" Fenjiu marketing, that is, anchoring one goal ("one in three places"), fighting three battles (key battle of marketing systematization construction; key battle of product structure adjustment; key battle of brand value promotion), building three markets (focusing on large base market, East China market and South China market) Promote two major projects ("1s + 3M + 6p" international marketing system, Xinghua village brand / personalized brand strategy building project), adhere to three indicators (Qinghua Fen Liquor sales index, Qinghua 20 terminal index, Qinghua Fen Liquor opinion leader group index), and achieve eight adherences (including adhering to Party construction leading marketing, cultivating executive combat team, information construction, dealer structure optimization, etc.), Work together to write a new chapter of manufacturer cooperation, enterprise development and brand rise.
Beyond expectation logic: the revival version leads the high-end, and the nationalization process is accelerated or beyond expectation
The revival version leads the high-end, the layout of blue and white liquor is super high-end, and the income of blue and white liquor may account for 40% - 50% of Fen Liquor series. Blue and white series has made brilliant achievements by virtue of "the cultivation of aroma type in Bofen + excellent product quality + the mainstream consumer price band in the card position + about 10% - 15% high channel profit" - blue and white series has maintained a high-speed growth of 40% - 60% in 17-19 years, achieved a growth of more than 30% in 20 years (revenue accounts for about 25% - 30%), and the revenue of 21h1 has reached 40%, Considering that the company's current product strategy is to "pull out the middle and control the bottom", the ultra-high-end layout of blue and white 40 China dragon, and the launch of blue and white 30 · revival version will further improve the brand image and open the volume and price space of blue and white 20, we expect that the compound growth rate of sales revenue of blue and white series will be higher than that of secondary high-end liquor in the next 14th Five Year Plan period, During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the proportion of Qinghua's income in Fenjiu series may reach 40% - 50%.
To the south of the Yangtze River, the expansion speed outside the province may exceed expectations. From 2016 to 2020, the CAGR of the company's sales revenue outside the province was 42.45%, far exceeding the expansion speed in the province, and the nationalization strategy has achieved initial results. We believe that there are two highlights in the development outside the province in the future: 1) the market around Shanxi: the overall market space of the sector around Shanxi is about 180 billion yuan, and the market share of Fenjiu is less than 3%. With the upgrading of product structure dominated by qinghuafen and the further sinking of channels, The upgrading of product structure promotes the release of performance, and the central Shanxi sector still has great development potential. 2) Southern market: the market space in the south of the Yangtze River is large and the consumption price is high. Previously, the foundation of Fenjiu was relatively weak. With the southern market becoming the company's next key market and putting forward the goal of an average growth rate of more than 50% in three years, the market performance outside the province may exceed expectations in the future.
Profit forecast and valuation
We believe that Fenjiu will benefit from the strong performance of Qinghua and the accelerated expansion outside the province. At the same time, considering the low performance base of the company affected by the epidemic in 2020 and the company's revenue target of 30% + in 2021, the revenue growth rate from 2021 to 2023 is expected to be 47.2%, 34.5% and 30.6% respectively; The growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company was 75.2%, 44.4% and 38.2% respectively; EPS is 4.4, 6.4 and 8.8 yuan / share respectively; PE was 63, 44 and 31 times respectively. In the long run, the performance has strong growth, the current valuation is cost-effective, and the buy rating is maintained.
Catalyst: continuous consumption upgrading and smooth introduction of high priced products;
Risk warning: the epidemic situation has repeatedly affected Baijiu selling. The sales of high-end liquor were lower than expected; Management change risk
