\u3000\u3000 Leader Harmonious Drive Systems Co.Ltd(688017) (688017)
Event: on the evening of January 25, the company issued a forecast of performance increase in 2021.
The performance slightly exceeded expectations, and the performance increased by about 206-249% year-on-year in 2021 after deducting non profits
The company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 185-205 million in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 125-150% (the median value is RMB 195 million, with a year-on-year increase of 138%), and a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 143-163 million after deduction, with a year-on-year increase of 206-249% (the median value is RMB 153 million, with a year-on-year increase of 228%), of which Q4 realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of about RMB 43-63 million in a single quarter, The year-on-year growth was 126% - 232% (the median value was 53 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 179%), and the performance was slightly higher than expected.
Industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) field: PMI recovery in manufacturing industry; Benefiting from the replacement of machines and the upgrading of manufacturing industry in the medium and long term, most of the company's products are currently used in the industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) field, which is expected to continue to benefit from the industrial upgrading under intelligent manufacturing and the increase of industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) penetration rate. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, China's industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) output was about 366000 units in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 45%, a record high. The manufacturing PMI began to pick up from November 2021. From October to December, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2, 50.1 and 50.6 respectively, and the prosperity rebounded. The company's industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) harmonic reducer is expected to maintain rapid growth.
Non Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) field: mechatronics products focus on the field of machine tools, which is expected to broaden the second growth curve. Mechatronics mainly integrates servo system, harmonic reducer, sensor and other parts into modules to improve the comprehensive performance of products. The downstream of the company's mechatronics products is mainly in the field of machine tools. We expect that the consumption of harmonic reducer CAGR in China's machine tool industry will be about 43% from 2020 to 2025. At present, the company is in the stage of small-scale test in the field of machine tools, and the technology has reached the advanced level in China. In the future, the electromechanical integration business is expected to continue to expand and become the second growth curve.
Domestic harmonic reducer leaders continue to increase R & D investment. Independent R & D advantages are established. High growth companies continue to increase R & D investment. The R & D investment in the first three quarters of 2021 is 25 million yuan, which has exceeded the total R & D in 2020. The company's original p-type tooth shoulder hamenaco benchmarking product performance, y and N series accuracy and service life are in the leading position in the industry. At present, the company's harmonic reducer accounts for more than 60% of the domestic industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) market. In 2020, the company's harmonic reducer accounts for about 5% of the global market. With the gradual expansion of the company's raised investment projects, the global market share is expected to rise year by year.
Profit forecast
At present, the prosperity of the downstream industry continues. With the gradual expansion of the company's project with an annual output of 500000 units, the profitability of the company is expected to be further improved with the scale effect. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 190 / 290 / 390 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 130% / 53% / 36%, corresponding to pe93 / 61 / 45x. The company's technical capability is independent and controllable, the industry boom is high, and the rating of "overweight" is maintained.
Risk tips
1) the company's product expansion and production expansion progress is less than expected; 2) The prosperity of downstream industries is lower than expected.
