\u3000\u3000 Hunan Xiangjia Animal Husbandry Company Limited(002982) (002982)
Event:
Hunan Xiangjia Animal Husbandry Company Limited(002982) released the company's performance forecast for 2021: the company's net profit in 2021 was about 22-28 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 87.39% - 83.95%.
Key investment points:
The price of live poultry was low, the feed cost was high, and the annual performance decreased. During the reporting period, the net profit of the company was about 22-28 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 87.39% - 83.95%. In terms of live birds, the company sold 36.3702 million live birds (year-on-year + 37.24%), the sales revenue was 767 million yuan (year-on-year + 53.14%), the average sales price was 11.45 yuan / kg (year-on-year + 9.98%), and the sales volume increased significantly. However, due to the downturn of Q2 and Q3 live poultry market in 2021, the unit price of live poultry is low, the price of feed raw materials such as corn soybean meal rises sharply, the profit space is further squeezed, and the company's annual live poultry business is at a loss. At the same time, in the process of developing new markets and channels of chilled products, the company has more relevant expenses and promotional activities, and the annual performance has decreased.
Ice fresh multi-channel layout strategy has achieved results, and the pace of diversified development has been accelerated. The sales volume of the company's ice fresh sector has maintained a stable growth, and the commercial supermarket channel has warmed up. Since the end of the second quarter of 2021, the volume and revenue have begun to achieve positive growth year-on-year; The company's new retail channel maintains the trend of rapid development and continuously improves its contribution to the company's performance. The company has completed the acquisition of Hunan Sanjian agriculture and animal husbandry and laid out the egg business. With the listing of pork slaughtering business in the future, it will achieve the diversified layout of chicken pork egg products. At the same time, the company will actively lay out prefabricated dishes, open up the cooked road of yellow feather broiler, and develop prefabricated dishes for Chinese meals and drinks, bringing new increment to the development of the company.
The prosperity of the yellow chicken industry will improve in 2022, and the profitability of the frozen fresh sector is expected to regain the upward trend. Since 2020q2, the production capacity of yellow feather chicken has continued to be reduced. At present, the total stock of parents, the stock of parents in production and the stock of backup parents are at a low level. 2022 is expected to usher in a cycle inflection point, and the upward price of chicken will boost the performance of the company. At the same time, the conversion of yellow feather chicken live poultry to ice fresh is the general trend of long-term development. The company has been deeply engaged in the ice fresh industry for many years, and its sales channels are distributed nationwide. Its profitability is expected to be greatly improved in 2022.
Profit forecast and investment rating considering the lower price of yellow chicken and the increase of breeding cost in the second and third quarters of 2021, we lowered the net profit attributable to the parent company to RMB 26 / 219 / 372 million and EPS to RMB 0.25/2.15/3.65/share respectively. In 2022, the bearing of huangjijing is expected to continue to improve, and the profitability of the ice fresh sector will regain the upward trend. The certainty of profitability growth in the next two years is high, and the "buy" rating will be maintained.
The risk indicates the risk that the company's performance is less than expected; The risk of less than expected penetration of chilled channels; The risk of continuous rise in the cost of feed raw materials; The risk of intensified competition of frozen fresh food; The risk that the company's capacity expansion is less than expected.
