\u3000\u3000 Betta Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(300558) (300558)
Key investment points
Event: the company released the performance forecast for 2021, and it is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company of 380-430 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 37.33% - 29.09%; The net profit after deducting non recurring profits and losses was 350-400 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.00% - 20.00%.
The profit contributed by the company's main business grew well. In 2020, the non recurring profit and loss is mainly the investment income generated by the company's sale of the equity of Zhejiang Beida Pharmaceutical Technology Co., Ltd. excluding this influencing factor, the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company is expected to increase year-on-year in the reporting period. The impact of the company's restricted stock incentive plan in 2021 on the expenses during the reporting period is about 64-66 million yuan. If the impact of reversal to amortization is added, the growth rate of the company's deducted non net profit is more than 20%.
The business grew well, and the revenue side achieved nearly 20% growth. At present, the company has three varieties on the market: ektinib, ensatinib, bevacizumab analogues. Ektinib was approved in June 2021 for postoperative adjuvant therapy of stage ii-iiia non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) with epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) gene sensitive mutation, which is expected to bring increment to ektinib. With the inclusion of medical insurance in January 2022, postoperative auxiliary indications are expected to accelerate the growth of sales. Nsatinib was sold throughout 2021, and was successfully incorporated into medical insurance at the end of 2021. It is expected to contribute more performance in 2022. In 2021, it is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 2.2 billion yuan to 2.3 billion yuan, an increase of 17.63% to 22.98% over the same period of last year. Achieve the goal of 2.2 billion yuan of income set by equity incentive.
2021 will be a fruitful year. Ektinib was approved for postoperative adjuvant treatment, bevacizumab was approved for marketing, and the application for drug registration of voronib tablets was accepted. Ektinib and ensatinib successfully entered health care through health care negotiations.
Through R & D, 7 new drugs ind were approved in 2021. Focusing on the layout of lung cancer and other tumor fields, the new drugs approved by the company to enter ind in 2021 include oral small molecule inhibitor of bet protein family, CDK4 / 6 inhibitor, PD-1 monoclonal antibody + CTLA-4 monoclonal antibody combination, small molecule PD-L1 inhibitor, SHP2 inhibitor, EGFR / c-Met bispecific antibody and KRAS G12C oral small molecule inhibitor. At present, the company has more than 40 ongoing projects.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.06 yuan, 1.35 yuan and 1.72 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 64, 50 and 39 times respectively. The company's core product ektinib has a stable and large volume, and the sales revenue has increased steadily. Ensatinib hydrochloride will become a new growth point of the company. Many innovative products of the company are online, and new drugs will be listed one after another in the future. Maintain a "hold" rating.
Risk warning: the progress of product research and development is lower than expected, and the sales of listed products are lower than expected.
