\u3000\u3000 B-Soft Co.Ltd(300451) (300451)
Key investment points:
On January 25, the company announced the performance forecast: in 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 375-469 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 12.86% – 41.26%; Deduct non net profit of RMB 346-440 million, with a year-on-year increase of 10-40%.
Compared with the growth rate in the third quarter:
(1) 2021q3: the revenue was 43100 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, the net profit was 87.38 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 14.6%, and the non net profit deducted was 87.42 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 22.14%.
(2) 2021q4: the net profit attributable to the parent company was 145-239 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 12.00% to 45.25%, deducting 142-237 million yuan of non net profit, with a year-on-year increase of – 7.56% to 53.69%. Since 2020q4 company began to implement the new accounting standards, the revenue was recognized from phased recognition to post final acceptance recognition, and the recognition time was delayed, which also slowed down the performance growth in the four quarters from 2020q4 to 2021q3. Therefore, we expect the performance growth of 2021q4 company to return to a faster level. However, according to the performance forecast, the company was also affected by project implementation, project payment collection, signing of new orders and other aspects because the epidemic situation in China exceeded expectations in the fourth quarter.
Due to the acquisition of Huikang IOT (formerly Botai service) in 2017, the company has a large number of non-medical information services. With the gradual transformation of the team to the medical IOT business, the proportion of the original financial IT business has gradually decreased. Therefore, compared with the overall revenue growth, we believe that the development of the company’s medical and health information business has stronger guiding significance for judging the business prosperity of the company. The company’s performance forecast pointed out that “the revenue of medical and health information software increased by about 20% – 25% year-on-year, and the amount of ten million orders increased by more than 40% year-on-year”. In contrast, the company’s revenue in the medical industry increased by 22.84% in the first three quarters. Although the disclosure caliber is completely consistent, we think the medical information business has still achieved good results in the fourth quarter.
In the first half of 2021, the company released a hospital wide product with a new architecture – huikangyun 2.0, which helped two tertiary hospitals go online, achieved the landing of benchmark customers, and laid the foundation for the overall cloud transformation of the company. Due to the higher implementation efficiency of huikangyun 2.0, the subsequent promotion will play a positive role in promoting the gross profit margin of the company’s products and the growth of revenue.
The promotion action for high quality development of public hospitals (2021-2025) issued in October proposed “By 2022, the average application level of electronic medical records in national level II and level III public hospitals will reach level 3 and level 4 respectively, the average level of intelligent service will strive to reach level 2 and level 3, and the average level of intelligent management will strive to reach level 1 and level 2”, which means that after the regulators put forward the rating requirements for electronic medical records and connectivity in 2018, the rating of intelligent service and intelligent management will also be included in the base This requirement is expected to bring deterministic business growth to the head his manufacturers represented by the company.
With the continuous expansion of the coverage of centralized procurement, the reform of the national medical system has entered the deep-water area. We believe that the importance of medical informatization has been further highlighted in the reform. Informatization means is an important guarantee to reduce medical expenditure and improve medical service capacity and per capita efficiency. At present, there is a trend to increase medical informatization investment in hospitals, social security and public health, which is good for the head company.
With the continuous improvement of business in recent years, we see that the company has also been focusing on its main business. We believe that although this will temporarily disturb the overall performance, it is conducive to the long-term development of the company:
(1) on April 9, 2021, the company lost its control over Meiqing digital due to the sale of equity and did not include its income into the consolidation scope. In 2020, Meiqing digital’s income was 115 million yuan, accounting for 7% of the company’s annual income.
(2) on December 28, 2021, the company signed a repurchase agreement with the joint-stock company Chuangyuan environment, and sold back 40.3969% of its equity at the price of 45.6 million yuan. The net profits of Chuangyuan environment in 2020 and the first three quarters of 2021 were 6.1595 million yuan and 5.7289 million yuan respectively, which had a limited impact on the performance in 2022.
Compared with peers, the company’s annual performance is still very excellent.
(1) the company’s annual net profit (RMB 346-440 million) has exceeded Winning Health Technology Group Co.Ltd(300253) (RMB 187-298 million).
(2) Winning Health Technology Group Co.Ltd(300253) the newly signed contract amount decreased slightly in 2020, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 25% in 2021; In 2021, the amount of ten million orders increased by more than 40% year-on-year.
Maintain the investment rating of “buy” of the company. The company’s business involves many high-profile tracks such as hospital informatization, public health informatization, internet medical treatment, Internet of things medical treatment, medical insurance informatization, healthy city and intelligent elderly care. The layout is comprehensive and has obvious advantages in emerging fields, which is suitable for long-term attention. We estimate that the company’s EPS in 21-23 years will be 0.29 yuan, 0.41 yuan and 0.56 yuan respectively. Calculated according to the closing price of 9.22 yuan on January 25, the corresponding PE will be 31.85 times, 22.40 times and 16.52 times.
Risk warning: the progress of intelligent service and intelligent management is lower than expected; The impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations.
