\u3000\u3000 Shanghai Friendess Electronic Technology Corporation Limited(688188) (688188)
Event: the company issued a performance forecast for 2021.
The demand for control system is strong, and the performance will continue to grow at a high speed in 2021
In 2021, the company is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of about 560 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 51.11%. It is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non-profit of about 524 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 72.31%. On the whole, although the performance is slightly lower than the market expectation in the middle of the year, the growth rate of more than 50% for two consecutive years is still excellent, The reasons for the continued rapid growth of the company’s performance in 2021 are as follows: ① the prosperity of the laser industry is high in the first three quarters of 2021. Throughout the year, the order volume of the company’s main medium power laser cutting control system business continues to grow; ② The company’s import substitution of high-power products accelerated, the market share continued to increase, and the revenue of bus control system increased significantly; ③ The intelligent cutting head business has entered the rapid volume period, and 1111 sets have been sold in 2021q1-3. As of September 2021, the company has placed 110 sets of orders on hand and signed 825 sets of agreement orders with customers. The demand for orders is strong, and the relevant revenue has achieved a great breakthrough in 2021.
The slowdown of manufacturing investment + the impact of power and production restriction, and the demand for Q4 orders decreased month on month
Quarter by quarter, 2021q4 company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of about 98 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 4.9%, which is significantly lower than the growth rate in the first three quarters. The sharp decline in the growth rate of 2021q4 performance is the main reason why the annual performance in 2021 is slightly lower than the previous market expectation. At the industry level, China’s manufacturing investment in 2021q4 was under short-term pressure. The PMI in October was 49.20, which was lower than the boom and bust line for two consecutive months. At the same time, the negative impact of power and production restriction was superimposed. The demand of the laser industry decreased to a certain extent, which affected the relevant demand of the laser control system, resulting in the decline of relevant orders of the company compared with 2021q3, which affected the release of Q4 performance. Looking forward to 2022, we believe that under the background of high base, the demand growth of the laser industry may be under pressure in the first half of the year. However, considering the rapid increase of the market share of the company’s bus control system and the continuous large volume of new products such as intelligent cutting head, the company has a certain ability to resist periodic fluctuations, and its performance is still expected to continue to grow steadily.
Intelligent cutting head & intelligent welding Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) completely opens up the growth space of the company
Based on CAD, cam, NC, sensor, hardware design and other technologies, the company’s borderless growth logic is opened up: ① we expect the market scale of China’s intelligent cutting head to exceed 3 billion yuan in 2025; The company’s intelligent cutting head has begun to rapidly increase its volume and turn losses into profits. With the continuous improvement of the production capacity of raised investment projects, it will quickly contribute to its performance in the short term. ② The potential market scale of China’s intelligent welding Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) exceeds 20 billion yuan; The company has completed the technical reserve and has developed the software and hardware prototype of the weld tracking sensor, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) off-line programming software demo and the basic Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) control system. And form small-scale intentional orders with downstream customers, which will completely open the growth space of the company in the future. ③ In addition, the construction of ultrafast laser control system, equipment health cloud and MES system platform is expected to become a new profit growth point of the company in the future.
Profit forecast and investment rating: in view of the short-term pressure on China’s manufacturing industry, we adjusted the company’s EPS from 2021 to 2023 to 5.60 yuan (down 7.15%), 7.76 yuan (down 2.04%) and 10.17 yuan (down 0.78%), and the corresponding dynamic PE of the current stock price is 72 / 52 / 40 times respectively. Considering the company’s excellent profitability and good growth, the “buy” rating is maintained.
Risk tip: the investment in downstream manufacturing industry is less than expected, the price of laser cutting control system is greatly reduced, the growth of high-power control system is less than expected, and the large-scale volume of intelligent cutting head is less than expected.
