\u3000\u3000 Zhejiang Supor Co.Ltd(002032) (002032)
Event: the company issued a performance forecast. For the whole year of 2021, the company is expected to realize an operating revenue of 21.585 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.07%, and a net profit attributable to the parent of 1.877 ~ 2.013 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.67% ~ 9.03%; Deduct non net profit of RMB 1.697 ~ 1.824 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 6.38% ~ 14.34%.
Q4 of the 21st year: the company is expected to realize an operating revenue of 5.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.87%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 636 ~ 772 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 16.9% ~ + 0.9%; Deduct non net profit of RMB 484 ~ 611 million, with a year-on-year increase of - 21.0% ~ - 0.3%. The company's Q4 revenue and performance meet expectations.
Revenue side: domestic rigid demand categories have increased steadily, emerging categories have maintained rapid growth, and the growth rate of export is slightly under pressure due to the impact of shipping.
1) domestic sales: the company's overall online sales are good. Kitchen appliances: according to the business consultant data, Zhejiang Supor Co.Ltd(002032) Q4 kitchen appliances transaction amount was + 15% year-on-year, including rice cooker + 11%, electric kettle + 17%, electric / hot pot + 39%, electric stew + 20% and air fryer + 123% year-on-year. In terms of cooking utensils: during the double 11, the sales of the whole network reached 340 million, a year-on-year increase of + 31%, and the sales of many categories of cooking utensils ranked first in the whole network during the double 11. We believe that the above categories with good growth have driven the growth of the company's Q4 overall revenue. At the same time, the company actively arranged the field of clean appliances, and Q4 achieved a simultaneous increase in volume and price. According to Aowei online data, the sales volume of Zhejiang Supor Co.Ltd(002032) clean appliances Q4 was + 51.68%, the sales volume was + 34.83%, the average price was + 12.49% and the market share was + 0.4pct year-on-year. 2) In terms of export sales: we believe that the continuous congestion of shipping in December may affect the growth of overseas business income. In the future, with the gradual improvement of shipping conditions, export sales will resume growth.
Profit side: the rise of raw materials and the layout of emerging channels may have a certain impact on profits.
We believe that the company's profit pressure in the fourth quarter is mainly affected by the following factors:
1) the rise of overall raw materials has put pressure on the company's profits. In addition to small household appliances, there is a large proportion of cookware business in Zhejiang Supor Co.Ltd(002032) business. The main raw materials are stainless steel, so it is under great upward pressure on costs.
2) 21 years, the company has made a breakthrough in diversification of channels, and the company has a better layout in tiktok and other emerging e-commerce channels. We expect that the related inputs will bring about corresponding marketing expenses growth in 21 years.
Investment suggestion: in the past 21 years, the company has made great efforts in channel diversification and product innovation, and the growth of domestic private brands has gradually resumed. From the profit side, the main restraining factor is the rising cost. We believe that with the price increase of the company's domestic sales, the profit side will be improved if the price is renegotiated with the parent company SEB. We expect the net profit of 21-23 years to be 1.95, 2.37 and 2.7 billion yuan (the previous value is 2.02, 2.44 and 2.81 billion yuan), and the corresponding dynamic valuation is 22.14x, 18.18x and 15.95x respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the sales of new products are less than expected, the risk of rising raw material prices, and the overseas demand is less than expected. The performance forecast is the preliminary calculation of the company, and the actual situation is subject to the annual report
