\u3000\u3000 Beijing Tianyishangjia New Material Corp.Ltd(688033) (688033)
Event: on the evening of January 25, the company issued an announcement of pre increase of 2021 annual performance. The company expects to achieve an operating revenue of 676 million yuan in 2021, an increase of 260 million yuan compared with the same period of last year, an increase of 62.72% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 177 million yuan, with an increase of 63 million yuan and a year-on-year increase of 54.90%.
Build the second curve of business growth around carbon matrix composites, driving the performance in the fourth quarter to exceed expectations. Taking new materials as the main line, the company has gradually highlighted the second growth curve from powder metallurgy materials to carbon matrix composites. In the fourth quarter, under the background of the implementation of the company's carbon composite production capacity, benefiting from the high prosperity of the photovoltaic industry, the revenue of photovoltaic thermal field materials broke through, driving the single quarter performance to exceed expectations. It is estimated that the operating revenue in the fourth quarter will exceed 300 million yuan, and the net profit is expected to reach 87 million yuan, a significant increase compared with the first three quarters. The company continues to steadily promote the new material business through its subsidiaries. In 2021, Tianli jiutao and Tianli Xintao have achieved mass production in the field of photovoltaic thermal field, realizing the landing of some production capacity. In the future, the company will continue to form cooperation with photovoltaic silicon wafer manufacturing enterprises. We believe that with the gradual release of the demand of the photovoltaic industry, the company's carbon carbon composite products will have broad market prospects. With mass production and the landing of production capacity, the carbon carbon composite business will bring continuous growth momentum to the company in 2022.
The acquisition of Ruihe technology intervened in the military industry and thickened the company's annual performance. The company completed the acquisition and capital increase of Ruihe technology at the beginning of 2021, and held 64.54% equity of Ruihe technology in total, which was consolidated in April 2021. Ruihe technology has fulfilled the corresponding performance commitment and achieved a net profit of no less than 25 million yuan in 2021, which has thickened the company's performance to a certain extent. The company quickly cut into the field of military and civil aviation through acquisition and broadened the application of the company's products. As the long-term layout of the company's future development, the military business will realize the complementarity of the company's business advantages, give play to Industrial Synergy and enhance its comprehensive competitiveness. If Ruihe technology continues to develop steadily and fulfill its performance commitment, it is expected to increase the profits of the company by 35 million yuan and 45 million yuan in 2022 and 2023 respectively.
Following the steady development of rail transit industry, brake pads continue to provide support for the company's performance. While vigorously expanding the business of new materials, the company still continues to promote the business of powder metallurgy brake pads for high-speed railway EMUs. The company's business will blossom at many points in 2021, but the fist product brake pads are expected to continue to contribute most of the company's performance. The central economic work conference proposed that infrastructure investment should be carried out moderately in advance. Under the national strategy of carbon peak, carbon neutrality and high-quality development, the characteristics of green infrastructure investment should be further strengthened, and rail transit may become one of the green development directions. With its own core competitiveness, the company's brake pad products have achieved rapid growth following the steady development of national railway industry investment and local urban rail investment. We believe that under the background of stable infrastructure investment and the rapid development of intercity and municipal rail transit, the company's core product brake pad can still maintain a good growth trend throughout the year.
Investment suggestion: we believe that the development of the company's main business will be sustained and stable. In the medium term, relying on new materials such as carbon and carbon ceramics, we will lay out new tracks with high growth, cultivate military business for a long time, enhance comprehensive competitiveness, and achieve stable performance growth. With the steady growth of the company's traditional business and the development of new materials business, we expect to realize an operating revenue of RMB 676 / 1050 / 1540 million, a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 177 / 377 / 533 million, a corresponding EPS of RMB 0.39/0.84/1.19 and a corresponding PE of 62 / 29 / 20 times from 2021 to 2023, maintaining the "recommended" rating.
Risk warning: the risk of railway investment is less than expected, and the risk of new business development is less than expected.
