\u3000\u3000 Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) (300014)
Key investment points
The company expects that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 will be 510-840 million yuan, with a month on month ratio of – 29 ~ + 17%. The accrual of bonus and equity incentive expenses will affect the growth rate, which is basically in line with market expectations. The company expects the annual net profit attributable to the parent company to be RMB 2.726-3.056 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 65% – 85%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 is RMB 510-840 million, with a year-on-year change of – 28% ~ + 19% and a month-on-month change of – 29% ~ + 17%, which is in line with market expectations. In 2021, the net profit deducted from non parent company is RMB 2.44-2.67 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 60% – 75%. Among them, the net profit deducted from non parent company in 2021q4 is RMB 311-540 million, with a month-on-month decrease of 56% – 23%. The expenses are intensively accrued at the end of the year. We expect the company to withdraw RMB 100 million bonus + and RMB 79 million equity incentive expenses in 2021q4. If added back, we expect the net profit returned to parent company in Q4 to be about RMB 900 million, with a month-on-month decrease of + 20% and a non profit deduction of RMB 600 million +, The month on month ratio was basically flat.
Power battery: the transmission of price rise is relatively smooth, and the gross profit margin of Q4 is basically flat month on month. We expect the shipment volume to double in 2022. In 2021, the company expects to ship about 12-13gwh of power energy storage batteries, doubling year-on-year growth, including 7gwh of Sanyuan soft bag and 5gwh of iron lithium, contributing about 10 billion yuan of revenue. We expect 2021q4 batteries to ship 4gwh +, with a ring increase of about 15%; Previously, the company announced that Yiwei power 2021q1-q3 had a loss of RMB 80 million. We expect that the loss is mainly caused by the early amortization and expenses of the ternary square production line. Affected by the rise in the price of raw materials, the company’s 2021q4 ternary soft package profit is expected to basically maintain, with a gross profit margin of about 20%, a gross profit margin of nearly 15% for iron and lithium, and an overall gross profit margin of 17-18%. It is flat month on month, maintaining a low profit. In 2022, with the further release of iron lithium capacity and the increase of energy storage demand, the company’s shipment is expected to be nearly 30gwh, of which the soft package ternary contribution is 10gwh, the square ternary contribution is 1GWh and iron lithium contribution is 17gwh +; With the price rise of batteries falling to the ground, the price rise of raw materials slows down, and it is expected to usher in an inflection point of battery profit in 2022.
Consumer battery: the column contributed the main increment, Jindou battery customers continued to develop, and lithium source maintained stable growth. 1) Cylindrical batteries: we expect that Q4 company will ship about 120-150 million cylindrical batteries in 2021, the demand for downstream electric tools will increase, the domestic substitution process will accelerate, and the company will have full production and sales. We expect that the company will ship nearly 600 million cylindrical batteries in the whole year, doubling the growth. The company’s subsequent production capacity is gradually expanded to 1.2 billion. We expect the sales volume to be nearly 1 billion in 2022, doubling year-on-year. 2) Xiao3c battery: the company’s main customers of Jindou battery are Samsung. Apple and Huawei are in the process of verification. Overall, we expect the xiao3c battery to grow steadily month on month in 2021q4. We expect that the shipment of Jindou battery in 2021 will exceed 100 million, more than doubling year-on-year. 3) Lithium primary battery: we expect that the revenue of 2021q4 will contribute about 500 million yuan and maintain stable growth, and the revenue of 2021 will contribute about 1.8 billion yuan. We expect that the lithium primary battery business will maintain a stable growth of about 20% in the next four years to provide stable cash flow for the company.
SIMORE Q4 is expected to contribute about 380 million yuan of investment income, which is in line with market expectations. In 2021, the adjusted net profit of SIMORE was RMB 5.18-5.71 billion (including the expenses related to the equity plan), with a year-on-year increase of 33-46.6%, of which the adjusted net profit of Q4 was RMB 955.6-1484.5 million, corresponding to the median value of RMB 1.22 billion, a slight decrease month on month; We estimate that in 2021, smore international will contribute about 1.69 billion yuan of investment income to Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , of which Q4 will contribute about 380 million yuan, which is in line with market expectations.
Investment suggestion: affected by the rising price of raw materials, we adjusted the net profit attributable to the parent company from 3.029/49.84/6.984 billion yuan to 2.997/47.35/7.581 billion yuan from 2021 to 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 81% / 58% / 60%, corresponding to 62 / 39 / 24xpe. We gave 60x PE in 2022, with a target price of 149.4 yuan, maintaining the “buy in” rating.
Risk tip: the sales volume is lower than the market expectation, the policy is lower than the market expectation, and the competition is intensified
