\u3000\u3000 Qi An Xin Technology Group Inc(688561) (688561)
Event:
The company issued the annual performance forecast for 2021 on the evening of January 25, 2022.
Comments:
It is expected that the operating revenue will increase by 36.26% – 39.86% year-on-year, and the competitiveness of core products will continue to improve
In 2021, the company is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 5.670-5.820 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 36.26% – 39.86%, mainly benefiting from the comprehensive and significant improvement of the competitiveness of the company’s core products and the in-depth changes in the network security market: 1) the new generation situational awareness platform developed based on Dayu platform has realized the capability base, business operation The three-tier decoupling and personalized combination of decision support further maintained the company’s leading position in the field of situational awareness; 2) The technical competitiveness of the company’s products in the fields of data security and privacy protection, practical situational awareness, cloud security, terminal security, border security, security services and security operations continues to lead the whole industry. The business scale and growth rate are in the leading position in the industry, helping the company achieve rapid growth in annual revenue; 3) The company’s internationalization strategy has made breakthrough progress, and some of the company’s core products have begun to have international competitiveness, opening up new space for the company’s development.
The net profit attributable to the parent company was affected by share based payment expenses, and the loss narrowed year-on-year after excluding the impact
In 2021, the company expects the net profit attributable to the parent company to lose 500-600 million yuan, an increase of 49.54% – 79.44% compared with the same period of the previous year; It is estimated that the loss of net profit deducted from non parent company is RMB 730-830 million, an increase of 35.37% – 53.91% compared with the same period of last year. The main reason for the change in net profit is that the company launched the employee restricted stock incentive plan in 2020, and the accrued employee share based payment expense in 2021 increased by 256 million yuan compared with that in 2020, which had a certain impact on the net profit attributable to the parent company. Excluding the above effects, the company’s net profit loss attributable to the parent company shows a narrowing trend compared with that in 2020.
Benefit from the in-depth reform of the network security market and expand key information infrastructure industries
The company’s business growth benefits from the in-depth reform of the network security market. In 2021, the data security law, the regulations on the security protection of key information infrastructure, the personal information protection law and other industrial legislation were successively issued, which opened a huge growth space for the network security market and had a far-reaching impact on the development of the network security industry. The regulatory environment pays more attention to the assessment of “practical” defense effect, driving the transformation of customer demand from “passive compliance” to “active legality”. The company’s products are more capable of practical, systematic and coordinated defense, which promotes the company’s revenue to continue to maintain rapid growth in key information infrastructure industries such as finance, operators, energy, power and medical treatment, as well as government customers.
Investment advice and profit forecast
The network security industry is in a high business cycle. The company has chosen the development mode of high R & D investment, actively layout new tracks, and has a broad growth space. Referring to the annual performance forecast for 2021, the company adjusted the operating revenue forecast of the company from 2021 to 2023 to RMB 5.737 billion, RMB 8.033 billion and RMB 10.697 billion, adjusted the net profit attributable to the parent company to RMB -511 million, – 0.53 million and RMB 357 million, and EPS to RMB -0.75, – 0.08 and 0.52/share. At present, the company is in a state of loss, so PS valuation method is more appropriate. Regardless of the value of low gross margin business (hardware and others), it is predicted that the company’s high gross margin business revenue in 2022 will be 7.386 billion yuan. Since its listing, the company’s PS mainly operates between 11-27 times, giving the company 13 times the target PS of high gross margin business in 2022, with the corresponding target market value of 96.018 billion yuan and the target price of 140.77 yuan. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Covid-19 recurrent pneumonia; The promotion of network security related policies is less than expected; The product development and market expansion of the new track are not as expected; Goodwill impairment.
