\u3000\u3000 Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) (300413)
The company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the annual net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will be 2.04 billion yuan - 2.14 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non profits will be 2 billion yuan - 2.1 billion yuan. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company of Q4 is 60-160 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 56.76% - 83.78%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction of non-profit in Q4 was 28-128 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 67.68% - 92.93%.
Key investment points:
A number of factors led to Q4's performance falling short of expectations. The company's Q4 net profit declined significantly, mainly due to: 1) less Q4 content broadcasting. "Brother through thorns" received good ratings and comments after it was broadcast, but there was no explosion in the follow-up variety show. The ace variety "happy camp" was stopped from broadcasting in October 2021. The revised new program "Hello Saturday Co.Ltd(002291) " was launched on January 1, 2022. At the same time, the recording and broadcasting time of the seventh season of "star detective" were postponed; 2) Xiaomang, an e-commerce platform, is in the period of strategic cultivation. It has done a lot of brand building and publicity activities to promote dau, and the sales expenses are intensively reflected in Q4; 3) The three subsidiaries of mango film and television, mango entertainment and Shanghai mango mutual entertainment have been restructured. At present, they are in the period of business integration and transformation, the main business indicators have decreased, and some projects have been impaired. After the content broadcasting gradually returns to normal, the focus of Xiaomang e-commerce assessment has shifted and the subsidiaries have been adjusted, the impact of some factors may be
The number of members has increased steadily. The number of mango TV members was 18.37 million in 2019, 36.13 million in 2020 and 50.4 million in 2021, with an increase of 96.7% and 39.5% respectively. Through the continuous output of good variety and film and television content, the number of members continued to increase at a faster rate. At the same time, the company announced a price increase for mango TV paying members in January 2022, with a price increase range of about 5% - 10%. Compared with the competitive product platform, the price after the price increase of mango TV platform still has certain advantages. Under the guarantee of the continuous supply of high-quality content, the platform members are still expected to maintain growth.
In 2022, there will be rich reserves of variety films and television. According to the 2022 mango marketing content press conference, the company's "comprehensive n generation" programs in 2022 include "sister riding the wind and waves Season 3", "brother cutting through thorns Season 2", "big detective", "escape from the chamber of Secrets season 4", etc. Innovative variety shows include "the beginning of reasoning", "delayed departure in spring", "hot-blooded youth trip", etc. Film and television plays include Shangshi, juvenile school 2, boyfriend pawn shop, forensic Qin Ming, etc., while monsoon theater includes sleeping garden, Zhang Weiguo's summer, wife's choice, Jiang zhaoliming, special doctor, etc. The company has verified its ability in content output through past variety shows and films. The scheduling of variety shows and film and television dramas with different types and themes is expected to continue to bring members and advertising revenue.
Investment advice and profit forecast: among the mainstream video platforms in China, the company takes the lead in achieving stable profits, and its business development is sustainable. At the same time, as a state-owned media platform, the company maintains strong sensitivity and stricter content control while actively innovating content, which may be less affected by policy risks.
In terms of new business, Xiaomang e-commerce, a vertical content e-commerce platform, has reached a peak dau of 1.26 million in continuous brand building, which is expected to provide positive profit contribution to the company in the future. The company is also actively exploring the landing and application of virtual host technology, 5g +, NFT, VR and other new technologies.
It is estimated that the company's EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.12 yuan / 1.37 yuan / 1.53 yuan. According to the closing price of 37.18 yuan on January 25, the corresponding PE will be 33.21 times / 27.15 times / 24.34 times, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk warning: the content scheduling progress and performance are not as expected; Stricter content supervision; The performance of new business is less than expected; The macro environment affects the advertising intention of advertisers; Risk of loss of core performers
