\u3000\u3000 Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) (601636)
Investment summary
Float leading, "one body and two wings" to create a new growth point. As the leader of float glass, the company actively arranges relevant industries upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, focuses on the stable development of float glass, actively enters the track of photovoltaic, electronic and medicinal glass, and creates a new growth point. In the first three quarters of 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 10.766 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 64.24%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.658 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 200.85%.
The main business is stable and the advantages of industrial chain integration are obvious. The float glass business of the company has developed steadily. By the end of 2020, the daily melting volume has reached 17600 tons. It is one of the leading enterprises in the original float glass in China. The company attaches importance to the integrated construction of industrial chain. In terms of raw materials, its own placer ore ensures the stability of raw material supply quantity and quality; In the field of deep processing, the production capacity and sales volume of energy-saving glass continued to grow. In 2020, the output and sales volume increased by more than 90% year-on-year, with a cumulative production and sales rate of 98.1%, becoming an important revenue growth point of the company.
"Two wings" fly together and cut into the high-end track of the glass market. The company actively enters the track of photovoltaic, electronic and medicinal glass. In terms of photovoltaic glass, the company integrates resources to build a photovoltaic glass industry platform based on Chenzhou Qibin. After the conversion of float production line and the new calendering production line are put into operation, the production capacity is expected to reach 8500 tons / day, or will be among the forefront of the industry; In terms of electronic glass, the company has made technological breakthroughs. The bending strength of the produced electronic glass is > 600MPa, the transmittance is ≥ 92%, and the performance is excellent; In terms of medicinal glass, the company complies with the trend of "domestic and double substitution of materials", actively expands production capacity, and builds new medicinal glass and medicinal glass plain tube production lines in Hunan and Zhejiang.
Profit forecast and valuation
Relying on the leading scale advantage of float glass industry, based on existing business and resources, the company strengthened the product line R & D ability of forward-looking business, steadily stepped on the pace of transition to high-end products, and finally formed a product layout combining middle end, middle end and high-end. We predict that from 2021 to 2023, the company will achieve operating revenue of 13.938 billion yuan, 16.933 billion yuan and 20.176 billion yuan respectively, net profit attributable to parent company of 4.920 billion yuan, 5.262 billion yuan and 6.024 billion yuan respectively, EPS of 1.83/1.96/2.24 yuan / share respectively, corresponding to the current stock price, with valuation of 10 / 9 / 8 times respectively. It will be covered for the first time and given "overweight" rating.
Risk tips
Risk of sharp rise in raw material costs; The expansion of new products is less than expected; The production capacity is lower than expected
