\u3000\u3000 Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) (600809)
Event description
The announcement on the pre increase of performance in 2021 is issued. It is expected that the net profit in 2021 will be 5.234 billion yuan – 5.542 billion yuan, an increase of 2.155 billion yuan – 2.463 billion yuan over the same period in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 70% – 80%.
Event comments
Q4 performance fell month on month, and 2022 started well with strong certainty. According to the company’s performance announcement, it is expected to realize a net profit of 5.234 billion yuan to 5.542 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 70% – 80%. The main reason is that in 2021, the company continues to deepen the “1357 + 10” market layout, increase market expansion in the south of the Yangtze River, and promote steady breakthroughs in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Anhui, Guangdong and other markets; Adhering to the product strategy of “grasping blue and white, strengthening waist and stabilizing glass Fen”, we further optimized the product structure and achieved high growth in business performance during the year. Among them, the net profit attributable to the parent company of 21q4 was 355-663 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 42.52% – + 7.32%. The performance of Q4 basically met the expectations and fell significantly month on month, mainly due to the active control of rhythm and high-quality growth. At present, the inventory is at a new low in history, the price is the best in history, the dealer channel profit is the best in history, and the market order is the best in history. From the current situation, the dynamic sales are gratifying, and 2022 has a good start with strong certainty.
Focus on four structural optimization to promote the high-quality development of Fenjiu. At the beginning of 2021, the company optimized the marketing organization structure and completed the replacement of new and old marketing backbones. The post-80s generation became the main person in charge of regional and provincial managers. A large number of post-90s marketing personnel were added to the sales line, which stimulated the endogenous driving force of the marketing team. At the same time, each marketing area has arranged the Spring Festival, Mid Autumn Festival, national day and other sales peak seasons in advance, focused on the banquet group purchase channels, continued terminal promotion activities, continued optimization of dealer structure and channels, and more than 1 million controllable terminal outlets in the national market; Under the guidance of Qinghua 30 (revival version), the sales proportion of medium and high-end Qinghua Fen Liquor series has increased steadily. The next three years will be a major strategic development period of Fen Liquor. 2022 is crucial. The company will focus on maximizing brand value, focusing on market structure optimization, product structure optimization, quality improvement and management improvement, so as to promote the high-quality development of Fen Liquor in an all-round way.
Investment advice
2021 is the opening year of the “14th five year plan” of Fenjiu, and it will end smoothly in 2021. We believe that high-end products, national market and two wheel drive are the main factors driving performance growth. In the medium and long term, the company has a clear goal of high-end products + national channels, and strong performance certainty. In the next 2-3 years, the operating revenue will be 30 billion yuan and 50 billion yuan in 4-5 years, with a compound annual growth rate of about 29%. In addition, the company’s ultimate goal is to take the medium and high-end route, and Qinghua Fen Liquor will continue to make efforts. Therefore, in the future, with the upgrading of product structure, the prominent scale effect and the optimization of management and operation level, the profit growth rate will be higher than the income growth rate, and the net interest rate will continue to increase. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 5.514 billion, 7.158 billion and 9.281 billion, and the EPS will be 4.52 yuan, 5.87 yuan and 7.61 yuan respectively. Corresponding to the current stock price, PE will be 59 times, 46 times and 35 times respectively. Maintain the “buy” rating.
There are risks
The risk of the epidemic exceeding expectations, the progress of state-owned enterprise reform does not meet expectations, the expansion outside the province does not meet expectations, and macroeconomic risks
