\u3000\u3000 Zhejiang Founder Motor Co.Ltd(002196) (002196)
Event: the company announced the plan for non-public offering of A-Shares in 2022: the company plans to raise no more than 1 billion yuan, and the controlling shareholder Zhuoyue automobile plans to subscribe for 100-300 million yuan in cash. The total fund-raising amount of this issuance plan is 1 billion yuan, of which 700 million yuan is to expand the production capacity of 1.8 million sets of new energy vehicle drive motors, 100 million yuan is the expansion project of Lishui fangdezhiqu Application Technology Research Institute, and 200 million yuan is to supplement working capital.
Increase and expand the production capacity of drive motor, improve the product structure + increase the market share. The company plans to raise 1 billion yuan to expand the production capacity of 1.8 million sets of drive motors, and is expected to gradually put into operation in the next 1-2 years. After the new production capacity is put into operation, the production capacity of the company’s drive motors is expected to exceed 2.6 million sets, of which the production capacity of flat wire motors accounts for about 50%, and the market share of the company is expected to gradually increase to 20-30%. According to the company’s announcement, at present, the customers of the company’s drive motor mainly include Wuling, SAIC passenger cars, Xiaopeng, Weiran power, Geely and honeycomb transmission, and are still actively expanding China’s main new car manufacturing forces and front-line independent brand customers.
The revenue and profitability of the company’s drive motor products have increased. The main driving factors include: 1) the continuous listing of models such as Xiaopeng, Weilai and great wall hybrid platform, superimposed with the gradual implementation of new customers and new models, the company’s drive motor revenue is high and the growth certainty is strong; 2) The product structure accelerates the iteration from the low-power round wire motor on the A00 model to the high-power flat wire motor on the high-voltage platform on the medium and high-end model; 3) The value of single vehicle has gradually increased from 1000 yuan for A00 model to 4000-5000 yuan for Xiaopeng and other medium and high-end models; 4) Additional values such as oil cooling and high voltage platform increase the value of a single motor.
Raw material price linkage, and the performance inflection point in 2022 can be expected. The main raw materials of the driving motor include silicon steel sheet, rare earth material and enamelled wire. Affected by the sharp rise of raw materials in 2021, the company’s product pricing mechanism can not conduct the cost of raw materials in the short term, resulting in a loss in the second half of 2021. In 2022, the company’s drive motor products have generally implemented price increases, and the price is linked with the price of raw materials to hedge the impact of raw materials on the company’s profitability. On the whole, the improvement of product structure + price linkage + increase of market share drive the company’s gross profit margin to return to the level of 15-20%, and the inflection point in 2022 is highly certain.
Investment suggestion: we expect the company’s operating income to be RMB 1.725 billion, RMB 2.795 billion and RMB 4.751 billion respectively from 2021 to 2023, and its net profit to be RMB 20 million, RMB 175 million and RMB 319 million. At present, the corresponding PE price is 311, 35 and 19 times. The inflection point of the company’s performance is clear, the “Buy-A” rating is maintained, and the six-month target price is 15 yuan / share.
Risk warning: the sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than the expected risk; New customer expansion is less than expected risk; The penetration rate of flat wire motor is lower than the expected risk.
