Zhou viewpoint: continue to be optimistic about independent rise + electric intelligence + motorcycle
Great changes have taken place in automotive intelligent and electric vehicles, reshaping the industrial order and looking forward to the golden decade of the automotive industry. At present, the market is too pessimistic about terminal demand and has poor expectations. We judge that the core contradiction of Q1 is the supply side. The extension of delivery date and the mismatch between supply and demand of popular models are the core affecting the sales volume in the first quarter. From the recent price increases announced by new energy vehicle enterprises, the vehicle enterprises have improved their ability to pass on costs, and this year's automobile market will be a beta resonance. Core portfolio of this month [ Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , Shanghai Yanpu Metal Products Co.Ltd(605128) , Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , Zhejiang Cfmoto Power Co.Ltd(603129) ].
Passenger cars: affected by the early spring festival this year and the high base in December 2021, we expect the sales volume from January to February to be relatively flat, and the annual demand is still strong. It is expected that the number of new energy passenger cars is expected to exceed 5.5 million. We judge that the core contradiction of Q1 is the supply side. The extension of delivery date and the mismatch between supply and demand of popular models are the core factors affecting the sales volume in the first quarter. The impact of core shortage is still on. The new orders in January cannot be delivered before the Spring Festival, which leads to the delay of demand. In addition, the decline of subsidies and rush loading in December brings a high base effect. It is expected that the performance of wholesale and retail from January to February will be relatively flat. The real demand is not pessimistic. This week Byd Company Limited(002594) issued a notice on the price increase of new energy models related to dynasty.com and ocean.com, which ranged from 1000-7000 yuan from February 1 this year, and the terminal discount is still low, reflecting the improvement of the cost transfer ability of the main engine factory. In December, the wholesale sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 498000, with a year-on-year increase of + 120.6% and a month on month increase of + 16.6%, and the corresponding penetration rate reached 20.9%. Firmly optimistic about the independent rise, realize the brand upward and increase the market share with the help of reform, recommend [Geely Automobile h, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) ], and benefit the target [Xiaopeng automobile h, ideal automobile H].
Parts: Electric Intelligence reshapes the industrial order, rapid performance growth + new fixed-point catalysis, and firmly look at many parts. Intellectualization will be the core theme of this year. Intelligent driving and intelligent cockpit will accelerate together, and we are optimistic about the accelerated penetration of acoustics + chassis by wire + domain controller; Electrification accelerates the development of lightweight, Tesla leads the integrated die casting, and improves the industry concentration while increasing the industry expansion. It is recommended to select the target from the customer dimension (new forces and other industrial chains) + product dimension (incremental parts), and the two-dimensional resonance is the best: preferred acoustics - [ Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) ], wire controlled chassis - [ Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ], domain controller - [ Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) ], ceiling glass - [ Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) ], integrated die casting - [ Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) ], intelligent seat - [ Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) , Shanghai Yanpu Metal Products Co.Ltd(605128) ], interior - [ Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) ], platform - [ Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) ].
1. Customer dimension:
Compared with the traditional fuel vehicle, the iteration speed of the new force model is faster, the verification cycle of the supply chain is shortened, and the supply chain tends to be flattened. The accelerated growth of sales volume drives the performance growth curve of the industrial chain company to become steeper. It is recommended to recommend [ Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , Wuxi Longsheng Technology Co.Ltd(300680) , Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Shanghai Yanpu Metal Products Co.Ltd(605128) ] with greater flexibility, and the beneficiary objects [ Nanjing Chervon Auto Precision Technology Co.Ltd(603982) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Shinry Technologies Co.Ltd(300745) ].
2. Product dimension:
1) electrification increment: three power [ Byd Company Limited(002594) , Wuxi Longsheng Technology Co.Ltd(300680) ], beneficiary targets [ Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (covered by the new power group), Shinry Technologies Co.Ltd(300745) ]; New energy thermal management [ Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) ], beneficiary targets [ Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) ]; Lightweight [ Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ], beneficial targets [ Nanjing Chervon Auto Precision Technology Co.Ltd(603982) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co.Ltd(002824) ].
2) intelligent increment: automatic driving [ Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) *, Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) ], benefit target [Nextel]; Intelligent cockpit [ Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , Shanghai Yanpu Metal Products Co.Ltd(605128) , Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) , Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) , Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) *, Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) ] ( Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Fuyao are jointly covered with computer group and building materials group respectively).
Motorcycles: in December, China sold 33400 medium and large displacement motorcycles, with a year-on-year increase of + 107.1% and a month on month increase of + 28.3% (333000 motorcycles were sold from January to December, with a year-on-year increase of + 65.8%). Medium and large displacement motorcycles represent the direction of consumption upgrading, with huge market potential. The share will be concentrated in independent and joint venture brands with outstanding brand strength, leading powertrain technology and perfect channel layout. Recommended [ Zhejiang Cfmoto Power Co.Ltd(603129) , Zhejiang Qianjiang Motorcycle Co.Ltd(000913) ].
This week's market: overall weaker than the market, led by trucks
This week, the A-share auto sector fell 3.06%, ranking 23rd in shenwanzi industry, weaker than Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (up 1.26%). Among the segments, passenger cars, passenger cars, automobile services, other transportation equipment, auto parts and trucks fell across the board, down 1.29%, 2.36%, 3.47%, 4.19%, 4.40% and 5.13% respectively.
This week's data: retail sales improved month on month and wholesale sales decreased
In the second week of January, the average daily wholesale volume was 58000, 0% year-on-year and - 15% month on month; In the second week of January, the average daily retail sales volume was 63000, with a year-on-year increase of - 2% and a month on month increase of + 3%.
Risk tips
Chip supply shortage; Fluctuations in raw material costs; Sales recovery was less than expected.
