Core view
Compared with last week, the turnover of new houses and second-hand houses decreased this week. This week, the number of new houses sold in 47 cities was 39000, down 5.8% month on month and 22.9% year-on-year; The number of new houses sold in 18 large and medium-sized cities was 26000, down 10.8% month on month and 17.0% year-on-year; 1、 The number of new houses sold in the second and third tier cities changed by – 15.3%, – 13.5%, + 30.6% month on month, and – 32.1%, + 10.2%, – 58.6% year-on-year respectively. The number of second-hand housing transactions in 16 cities was 14000, down 12.4% month on month and 31.1% year-on-year; The number of second-hand housing transactions in 12 large and medium-sized cities was 13000, down 13.4% month on month and 29.2% year-on-year; 1、 The number of second-hand housing transactions in the second and third tier cities increased by – 4.5%, – 20.1% and + 6.1% month on month respectively, and the year-on-year growth rates were – 43.4%, – 18.6% and – 31.5% respectively.
Compared with the previous week, the inventory of new houses decreased, and the decontamination cycle increased. The inventory of new houses in 15 cities was 1.033 million units, with a month on month decrease of 1000 units, and the decontamination cycle was 11.3 months, with a month on month increase of 0.2 months; The inventory of new houses in 8 large and medium-sized cities was 563000 units, a month on month decrease of 2000 units, and the decontamination cycle was 7.9 months, an increase of 0.1 months; The inventory of new houses in the first tier cities was 266000 units, with a month on month decrease of 2000 units. The decommissioning cycle was 7.5 months, with a month on month increase of 0.1 months. The inventory of new houses in the second tier cities was 206000 units, with no significant change. The decommissioning cycle was 8.6 months, with a month on month decrease of 0.1 months. The inventory of new houses in the third tier cities was 91000, with no significant change on a month on month basis. The deconvolution cycle was 7.5 months, up 0.2 months on a month on month basis.
The overall land market fell compared with the volume and price of last week, and the land premium rate decreased. The number of all types of land sold in Baicheng was 95, with a month on month increase of 18.8% and a year-on-year decrease of 82.6%; The planned construction area of the land traded was 4.78 million square meters, down 11.0% month on month and 83.9% year-on-year; The total land transaction price was 4.1 billion yuan, down 41.8% month on month and 91.7% year-on-year; The average floor price of land traded was 854 yuan / m2, down 34.6% month on month and 48.4% year-on-year; The land premium rate of Baicheng was 0.97%, down 3.0% month on month and 93.2% year-on-year.
Investment advice
This week, the five-year LPR was lowered by 5bp as scheduled, which was the first time that the five-year LPR was lowered after 21 months. It is asymmetric with the one-year LPR. To some extent, it reflects the policy determination of “housing without speculation” and the cautious attitude of waiting for the change of sales data. The reduction of LPR over a five-year period is still good for the confidence of the real estate market, but it has a limited effect on the total demand, and the limited purchase qualification and wait-and-see mood are still there. We believe that the credit environment needs to continue to be relaxed to support the release of reasonable housing consumption demand. At the same time, we need to observe whether the fundamentals have warmed up. If not, we need to add loose industrial administrative policies to stabilize the volume and price of the real estate market. The supply and demand side policies of the real estate industry will still be further moderately adjusted to promote a virtuous circle of the industry. Last week, the down payment ratio of provident fund loans in some cities (such as Beihai and Zigong) has been reduced. We believe that the down payment ratio and “house and loan recognition” in cities under more pressure may be adjusted; At the same time, this week, we also saw the policy of relaxing the supervision of pre-sale funds issued by Yantai, Shandong Province. We believe that under the pressure of short-term sales volume, the measures to improve the sales collection rate of real estate enterprises mainly focus on the improvement of the collection rate, which can be achieved by accelerating the speed of bank mortgage lending and moderately relaxing the supervision conditions of pre-sale funds. From the perspective of sector investment, we adhere to the view that “the first quarter is a better allocation window period”, and the expectation of policy improvement is still strengthened. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the opportunities of the real estate sector. We suggest paying attention to three main lines: 1) leading real estate enterprises with low credit risk, smooth financing channels and high security: Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Vanke A, Longhu group and China Resources Land. 2) Under the influence of macro and industrial policies such as interest rate reduction, elastic real estate enterprises with large marginal income: Xuhui holding group, rongchuang China, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) . 3) At present, the income is determined strongly, the concentration is accelerated, and the real estate post cycle property sector associated with the recent credit risk mitigation of real estate enterprises and elastic reversal: Country Garden service, Xuhui Yongsheng life, xinchengyue service, Jinke service, China Resources Vientiane life and Baolong business.
Risk tips
Real estate regulation continues to upgrade; Sales fell more than expected; Financing continued to tighten.
