Market review: this week (January 17-21, 2022, the same below), the weekly increase of Shenwan food and beverage industry was 3.81%, which was greater than that of CSI 300 by 1.11%; Among them, Baijiu (shenwan3, the same below) (5.22%), beer (4.21%), dairy (2.31%) three sectors were among the top three of shenwan3 food and beverage sectors. Pre processed food (- 8.23%), health products (- 4.03%) and baked goods (- 3.22%) ranked the top three in the decline of Shenwan class III food and beverage
The epidemic control is more accurate. The Spring Festival transportation data has increased by more than 40% year-on-year. There is no need to be pessimistic about Spring Festival consumption. We statistically analyzed the overall epidemic prevention during the three-year Spring Festival from 2020 to 2022. The epidemic prevention policies around the Spring Festival in 2022 were significantly more refined, and the restrictions on the return of people in low-risk areas were reduced. At the same time, the central media also criticized the local government's anti epidemic measures. From the perspective of the Spring Festival transportation, the Ministry of transport estimates that the country will send 1.18 billion passengers during the Spring Festival transportation in 2022, an increase of 35.6% over the same period in 2021. In the first three days, the country will send 74.86 million passengers, an increase of nearly 41.5% over the same period in 2021. The impact of the epidemic on the consumption of the Spring Festival is weakened year-on-year, so there is no need to be pessimistic about the consumption during the Spring Festival.
Baijiu enterprises pay New Year's call in good condition, and East China and other regions are expected to perform well: high-end Baijiu is mainly used for gifts and annual meetings, and sales are mainly stable 2-3 weeks before the Spring Festival. The week before the Spring Festival + the week after the Spring Festival is the peak of mass price wine consumption. With the significant growth of people returning home during the Spring Festival, the terminal mobile sales are expected to continue to improve. Subregional perspective, Shaanxi, Henan and Tianjin are affected by the epidemic recently. We estimate that the impact on the 600 billion Baijiu market is not more than 10%, while the East China and other economically powerful provinces are less affected by the epidemic.
Maotai 1935 was listed and the price of one thousand yuan was expanded again: Maotai 1935 was officially released on January 18. The base liquor of heyixing production area was the main body and the base liquor of Maotai core production area was added. According to channel feedback, the invoice price is 798 yuan and the guidance price is 1188 yuan. At present, the sales are hot and the supply is in short supply. We expect that the price will fall to 1200-1600 yuan, and large single products will be added in the price range of 1000 yuan to accelerate the cultivation and expansion of consumers; In the short term, due to high channel profits and brand strength, it has a certain impact on other sauce wines at the price of 1000 yuan; Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Laojiao have different flavor types and strong brand potential. The cultivation of consumers in Maotai 1935 also takes time, which has little impact in the long run.
Beer: the price rise in the off-season will gradually fall to the ground, waiting for the peak season to come. In 2021, the volume and price of the beer industry increased simultaneously, with a sales revenue of about 155 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, and a total profit of 17.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30%. Due to the cold weather in winter, it is the off-season for the overall consumption of beer. Many liquor enterprises raise product prices. Under the repair of consumption scenes, the output is expected to continue to grow. Under the high-end industry, the enterprise profit is expected to continue to increase.
Investment recommendations: the three main investment lines of high quality, structured and scenario repair remain unchanged. The short-term trend of disturbance will lead to a revival of consumption, but it will not affect the general direction of recovery. We recommend the high-end liquor Baijiu with the pricing power and the secondary high-end structural expansion benefit targets, and configure the industry leaders and scene restoration targets that benefit the price. Recommendations: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) etc.
Risk warning: repeated epidemic situation; Industry competition intensifies; Food safety accident risk.
