Focus:
1) on January 20, the central bank issued a 1-year LPR of 3.7% in January, a decrease of 10bp, and 4.6% for varieties over 5 years, a decrease of 5bp; On January 21, the central bank announced that from January 17, the overnight varieties, 7-day varieties and 1-month varieties of standing lending convenience interest rates were 2.95%, 3.10% and 3.45%, all of which were 10bp lower than before.
2) as of this week, a total of 16 listed banks have disclosed the performance express of 2021. The overall growth rate of revenue and profit has increased month on month, and the non-performing and provision indicators have continued to improve.
Industry and company dynamics
1) on January 18, at the press conference of the state information office, Liu Guoqiang, vice president of the central bank, introduced the financial statistics of 2021 and proposed that monetary policy should be pushed forward. 2) On January 19, the national development and Reform Commission and other nine departments issued several opinions on promoting the standardized, healthy and sustainable development of the platform economy, regulating the investment and shareholding of platform enterprises in financial institutions and local financial organizations, and strengthening the supervision of the payment field. 3) This week Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) completed the issuance of 30 billion yuan of non fixed term capital bonds with a coupon rate of 3.46%; Bank Of Suzhou Co.Ltd(002966) completed the issuance of 3 billion yuan of non fixed term capital bonds with a coupon rate of 3.8%; Bank Of Zhengzhou Co.Ltd(002936) the implementation of the plan to stabilize the share price of A-Shares was completed, and the directors, senior executives and voluntary holders increased their shares by 935000 shares, with an amount of 2.8863 million yuan.
Data tracking
This week, the A-share banking index rose by 4.26%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.15 percentage points, ranking 3 / 30 in the rise and fall of the sector, among which Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) (+ 9.21%), Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) (+ 8.38%), China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) (+ 7.91%) led the rise, and Bank Of Qingdao Co.Ltd(002948) (- 2.70%) and Zhejiang Shaoxing Ruifeng Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601528) (- 0.99%) led the decline.
Open market operation: this week, the central bank conducted a total of 500 billion yuan of reverse repo and 700 billion yuan of MLF in the open market. This week, a total of 50 billion yuan of reverse repo and 500 billion yuan of MLF expired. Therefore, a full caliber net investment of 650 billion yuan in the open market this week. Next week (January 24 to January 30), the central bank’s open market will have 500 billion yuan of reverse repo due. Shibor: Bank Of Shanghai Co.Ltd(601229) inter-bank lending rate trend down, overnight Shibor interest rate down 14.6bp to 2.06%, 7-day Shibor interest rate down 10.1bp to 2.11%.
Investment suggestions:
This week, the interest rates of one-year and five-year LPR quotations were cut by different ranges, and the SLF interest rate was reduced. After the reduction of reserve requirement and wide currency, the interest rate cut continued to stimulate the overall credit demand. The forward force of the policy is conducive to improving the rhythm of the overall economic repair, thereby reducing the credit risk and improving the valuation expectation level of the banking sector. Since the beginning of the year, under the net inflow of funds, the banking sector has continued to obtain absolute and relative returns, and individual stocks with beautiful fundamentals and high growth have led the rise. At present, the sector valuation corresponding to PB has rebounded slightly to 0.65 times, which is still at a historical low. In the future, we need to pay attention to the economic repair trend after the “policy bottom”, and continue to recommend: China Merchants, Ping An, Xingye, Ningbo, Chengdu, Hangzhou, Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) .
Risk tips:
1) the downward pressure on the economy continues to increase, and the credit cost has increased significantly;
2) the business differentiation of small and medium-sized banks, major business insurance of individual banks, etc.
