Key investment points
Market last week: light industry manufacturing sector index fell. From January 17, 2022 to January 21, 2022, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.86%, and the light industry manufacturing index fell by 1.83%, ranking 16th among the 28 Shenwan industries; The rise and fall of light industry manufacturing index sub sectors from high to low are: household light industry (- 0.46%), papermaking (- 0.71%), packaging and printing (- 4.49%).
Furniture: Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) , Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) announce the performance forecast. 1) Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) the company released the performance forecast on January 20, 2022. The company expects the operating revenue to reach 19.899-21.373 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 35% - 45%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is 2.640-2.846 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 28% - 38%. The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction is about 2.477-2.671 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 28% - 38%. 2) According to the performance forecast released on January 22, 2022 Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) , the company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 550-560 million yuan in 2021, an increase of 75.5% - 78.7% and a deduction of non net profit of 495-505 million yuan, an increase of 58% - 61.1%. 3) In terms of real estate, on January 17, 2022, the central bank announced to reduce MLF and reverse repo interest rates to alleviate the pessimistic expectations of the real estate market. The external environment of the furniture industry has improved, and the orders of 2021q4 household enterprises have exceeded market expectations, highlighting the valuation advantages. Last week, the customized home sector went up (2022 / 1 / 17-2022 / 1 / 21), and we are optimistic that the valuation of the furniture sector will continue to be repaired. In terms of customization, we recommend [ Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) ] and [ Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) ] in combination with the proportion of bulk business income, accounts receivable risk and valuation level. We suggest paying attention to [ Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) ] and [ Goldenhome Living Co.Ltd(603180) ]. In terms of software, it is the first to accelerate the promotion of independent brands and sink the leading [ Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) ] in channel construction; Meanwhile, [ Healthcare Co.Ltd(603313) ], [ Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ] and [Minhua holdings] are recommended.
Electronic cigarette: feelmair leads the atomization technology revolution, and smore international announces the 2021 performance forecast. On January 18, 2022, feelm, a high-end atomization brand of smore international, held a new technology conference in London to disclose feelmair, a new generation of ultra-thin ceramic core technology. The first seven layer composite heating film technology is difficult to upgrade, and the atomization performance of the product is improved in an all-round way. On January 22, 2022, smore International released the performance forecast for 2021. The total profit and comprehensive income in 2021 were about RMB 5.024-5.553 billion, a year-on-year increase of 109.3% - 131.4%; The adjusted net profit was about RMB 5.179-5.708 billion, a year-on-year increase of 33.0% - 46.6%. We are optimistic about the continuous expansion of the atomized e-cigarette market after the industrial norms. As the global leader of atomized e-cigarette, the company is deeply engaged in technological innovation and continues to recommend [smore international]; It is suggested that we should pay close attention to the close cooperation with China tobacco, and distribute the flavors and fragrances and evaluate the [ Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) ] with high price performance ratio. Enterprises with thick slurry flake production technology [ Anhui Genuine New Materials Co.Ltd(603429) ].
Papermaking: in terms of price, as of January 21, 2022, the price of box board paper was 4904 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis; The price of corrugated paper was 3900 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis; The price of white cardboard was 5871 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis; The price of white board paper was 4905 yuan / ton, unchanged on a week-on-week basis, and the latest price of double copper paper was 5380 yuan / ton, unchanged on a week-on-week basis; The latest price of double offset paper is 5675 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 75 yuan / ton. In terms of inventory, as of last Thursday (January 20, 2022), the inventory of cultural paper and carton board enterprises had increased slightly on a weekly basis. The industry operated stably and waited for the improvement of demand.
Risk tip: power rationing policy affects production capacity, raw material price fluctuations, intensified Sino US trade frictions, weak downstream demand, etc. Note: except for special notes, all currencies in the full text are RMB.
