Industry data:
Brand clothing: frequent outbreaks & the decline of clothing retail sales expanded to - 2.3% month on month under weak demand
In December 2021, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by + 1.7% year-on-year (mom-2.2pcts), up from + 6.4% in the same period in 2019. Among them, the textile and clothing category was - 2.3% year-on-year (growth rate was - 1.8pcts month on month), up from - 0.22% in December 2019. From the perspective of cumulative retail sales from January to December, the textile and clothing society zero year-on-year + 12.7%, compared with the same period in 2019 + 2.4%.
On the online side, from January to December 2021, the sales of online physical goods of national wearing category increased by 8.3% year-on-year, further narrowing by 2.8pcts month on month. Specifically, the online Gmv of various categories decreased significantly year-on-year this month, mainly due to the high base in the same period last year and the relatively weak consumption performance this year. Compared with previous years, this "double 12 promotion Festival" activity is more "dull and cold". In addition, the diversion under the rise of emerging e-commerce platforms throughout the year also had a certain impact. The sales of women's / men's / children's / home textile / sportswear on Alibaba platform (tmall & Taobao) were - 20% / - 37% / - 33% / - 38% / - 45% year-on-year respectively, of which the sales of various categories were + 1% / - 20% / - 22% / - 11% / - 30% year-on-year respectively, and the average price of TOP500 was + 4% / - 46% / - 18% / + 16% / - 21% year-on-year respectively.
Textile manufacturing: in December, the growth rate of garment export remained high, and the textile export increased month on month
Price: as of January 21, 2022, the cotton 328 price index closed at 22645 yuan / ton, with a month on month / year change of + 724 / + 7346 yuan.
Supply and demand: in January, USDA estimated that China's cotton supply in 2021 / 22 would be 8.002 million tons, the demand would be 8.611 million tons, and the supply-demand gap would be 609000 tons, an increase of 55000 tons compared with that expected in December, and the stock sales ratio would be - 5pcts to 92.16%. From the perspective of the global market, the supply-demand gap in 2021 / 22 expanded by 125.5 to 715000 tons month on month, and the warehouse sales ratio was - 6.5 PCTs to 49.77%, mainly due to the sharp decline in the output of the United States and India (- 253000 tons), while the global cotton consumption changed slightly (month on month - 6000 tons), and the global cotton import and export volume was basically the same.
From the export data, the cumulative export amount of textile and clothing from January to December 2021 was + 8.3% year-on-year, and + 16.2% compared with the same period in 2019. By category, the export amount of textile / clothing products in December was - 5.6% / + 23.9% year-on-year respectively, and the export amount in a single month was + 16.2% / + 14.5% year-on-year respectively. Among them, the growth rate of clothing export remained high driven by the increase of international market demand and festival promotion. The growth of textile exports in December continued to expand month on month, and the cumulative decline continued to narrow compared with the previous month.
Vietnam Textile: as of January 23, 2022, the number of new / existing confirmed cases in Vietnam on the same day was 15707 / 289156. On the whole, the epidemic situation in Vietnam has rebounded sharply since it was unsealed in early October. In terms of exports, Vietnam's textile exports in December amounted to US $3.6 billion, with a low base of + 44% compared with the same period in 2020. It continued to benefit from the good recovery of textile production capacity and strong demand in overseas terminal markets after Vietnam lifted the city closure.
Industry perspective and investment suggestions: 1) brand clothing, long-term optimistic about Anta sports, China's first sports brand with high industry prosperity, accurate differentiated positioning and perfect multi brand matrix (35x in 2022); 2) For textile weaving, it is suggested to pay attention to the leading manufacturer of high-quality sports shoes Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) (30x in 2022) whose production capacity is concentrated in South Vietnam and is seriously affected by the epidemic, while the company is less affected by the epidemic in Vietnam and has strong orders; And the high growth civil nylon Integration Leader Zhe Jiang Taihua New Material Co.Ltd(603055) (22x in 2022), which broke the overseas monopoly pattern due to technological breakthrough and cast high barriers through differentiated products. And the eco-friendly synthetic leather leader Anhui Anli Material Technology Co.Ltd(300218) (19x in 2022), which drives the double acceleration of revenue and profit with the large volume of large customers with high gross profit margin.
Risk tip: the risk of macroeconomic slowdown; The terminal consumption demand slows down; Cotton price change risk.
