Performance of financial 21q4 positions: 1) banks: the proportion of heavy positions decreased by 0.36pc to 2.93% compared with the end of September, and fell by 1 to 9 in shenwanyi industry; 2) Non bank finance: the proportion of heavy positions was 2.25%, ranking 12th, with an increase of 0.22pc compared with the end of September. From the perspective of sub sectors, insurance positions were reduced by 0.03pc and securities companies increased their holdings by 0.37pc.
Bank: Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) was increased and holdings of China Merchants Bank, Societe Generale and Ping An were reduced.
1) the overall position proportion of the banking sector decreased slightly. At the end of December, the proportion of fund positions in “banks” was 2.93%, down 0.36pc from the end of September (corresponding to 11.73% of standard configuration). In the fourth quarter, due to real estate risk events and the continued weakness of medium and long-term loans, the market was worried about macro-economy and asset quality, and funds continued to flow out of the banking sector.
2) Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) was increased, and the holdings of China Merchants Bank, Xingye and Ping An were reduced. Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) increased its holdings by 0.13pc month on month, while China Merchants Bank, Societe Generale and Ping An reduced their holdings by 0.22pc, 0.12pc and 0.12pc respectively.
Insurance: the position at the bottom of history continues to decline.
1) the proportion of positions continued to fall to the bottom of history and still fell slightly compared with the end of September. At the end of December, the proportion of “insurance” of fund positions was 0.17%, which continued to decrease by 0.03pc month on month. The standard configuration of the sector is 2.76%, and the configuration proportion continues to be at the lowest level in history.
2) in terms of individual stocks, Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) continued to reduce their holdings. The allocation proportion of the institution to Ping An and CPIC was 0.13% and 0.04% respectively, and the holdings were reduced by 0.03pc and 0.02pc respectively. Since 2021, due to the switching of product structure and the loss of agents, there are hidden worries about the real estate thunderstorm on the investment side, there is obvious pressure on both ends of the negative capital of insurance stocks, and there is still obvious pressure on the liability side of the outlook for 2022.
Securities companies: the overall position increased, mainly increasing positions in China stock market news and Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) .
1) continuously increase positions in Q4. At the end of December, the proportion of “securities companies” in fund positions was 2.02%, up 0.37pc from the end of September.
2) in terms of individual stocks, the position increase of Dongcai is more obvious. Dongcai increased its holdings by 0.22pc to 1.37%, and Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) increased its holdings by 0.06pc to 0.18%. Huatai and Guojun increased their holdings slightly.
Investment suggestions: 1. Banks: continue to be optimistic about the restless market in spring. 1) From the perspective of the previous round of “wide credit” cycle, after the growth rate of social finance stabilizes, the stock price of banks tends to stabilize, while when the credit is wide (medium and long-term financing is improved), banks can often usher in a larger and more sustainable market. At present, the credit supply of most listed banks is basically the same as that of last year, and the pace is more advanced. With the superposition of the recent “forward force” and “steady growth” policies (such as the recent interest rate cut and the central bank’s repeated emphasis on “promoting stability”, etc.), we continue to be optimistic about the “small peak” of Q1 credit. It is worth noting that this round of steady growth policy is very positive and the direction is relatively clear. Under the rapid overweight of the policy, we are optimistic about the “spring agitation” market after the formation of broad credit expectation, which is first reflected and catalyzed by the market. 2) Performance express centralized disclosure, or become a “catalyst”. The annual profit growth of banks that have disclosed relevant data increased by 22.3% and revenue increased by 10.7%, continuing to maintain high growth. At the same time, the non-performing rate was 1.01%, which continued to decline by 3bps compared with the end of September, the provision coverage increased by 7.3pc to 337.1%, and the asset quality improved steadily.
2. Securities companies: 1) the securities companies expect Q4 performance to exceed expectations, the performance express continues to catalyze, and the annual performance has a high growth; 2) The interest rate cut was officially implemented this week, the market liquidity remained relatively loose, and there were still expectations for the reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates in the later stage; Market liquidity and regulatory policies are good for the performance of securities companies. 3) The valuation of the sector is cost-effective. At present, it is only 1.69 times Pb. We pay attention to the allocation opportunities.
3. Insurance: the overall assets are under pressure at both ends, the number of agents continues to fall off, and the valuation of sectors and individual stocks continues to be under pressure. At present, we are still cautious about 2022 and wait for the inflection point of liabilities. Note 1: it mainly counts the allocation of heavy positions of active partial stock funds (including common stock funds and partial stock hybrid funds) and flexible allocation funds; Note 2: proportion of heavy position allocation = market value of a stock held by the fund in heavy position / total market value of the fund in heavy position; Note 3: standard allocation = the current market value of a stock / the current market value of all heavy positions of the fund.
Risk tip: the risks of real estate enterprises erupt intensively, and the macro-economy goes down; The promotion of capital market reform policy is less than expected; The sales of guaranteed products of insurance companies were lower than expected.
