Investment advice
Continue to look good at the good quality of cosmetics under the new regulations: enter the supply chain system of global raw material giants, alleviate the overseas epidemic of 22q1, pick up the demand, increase the demand under the strict supervision of China's new regulations, and continue to release Nanjing Cosmos Chemical Co.Ltd(300856) new production capacity; The OEM leader Jahen Household Products Co.Ltd(300955) is bound with domestic and foreign brands and the new factory is expected to contribute to the performance increment (the revenue end is expected to be reflected earlier than the net profit end).
In December, the retail of cosmetics terminals increased by 2.5% at the same time, which was generally light, and the retail off-season was from January to February. According to grassroots research, at present, major brands are preparing for the 3.8 promotion. It is expected that under the catalysis of the promotion, the overall retail will be boosted. It is suggested to choose the opportunity to arrange the head brand Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) / Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) and Lushang Health Industry Development Co.Ltd(600223) which is expected to grow beautifully in advance.
Special topic of this week: combing the prospectus of Shanghai Shangmei
Shanghai Shangmei submitted an application for listing on the Hong Kong stock exchange. According to the prospectus, the company's revenue in 19 / 20 years was 2.9/3.4 billion yuan (+ 17.6%), corresponding to the net interest rate of 4.0% / 7.8%, the revenue of 1-3q21 was 2.596 billion yuan (+ 12.77%), the net profit was 285 million yuan (+ 45.30%), the net interest rate was 11%, continued to improve, and the profit sales fee utilization rate decreased.
The brand has strong incubation ability. The main brands of Volkswagen, Han Shu (skin care) / Yiye (skin care) / red elephant (baby) are leading brands in subdivided tracks. In recent years, they have accelerated the brand incubation speed, launched high muscle energy (public sensitive muscle skin care), Amir (medium and high-end pregnancy care) and Jifang (hair care), and prepared to launch an Minyou (medium and high-end mother and baby), Yiye Yamada farming and other three brands.
The channels cover a wide range, and the direct / cooperative e-commerce platform / distribution modes are arranged online, while the cooperative offline retailers (large supermarkets and chain cosmetics stores) / distribution modes are arranged offline. 1-3q21 online accounts for 73%, with an increase of 11% (including direct sales with a decrease of 1%, cat supermarket / jd.com / vipshop and other retail with an increase of 363%), and offline with an increase of 15.7% (including supermarkets and chain cosmetics stores with an increase of 33.7%).
The funds to be raised in this listing are mainly invested in brand construction / investment / equipment transformation and expansion / increase of sales network / R & D / digital informatization, etc.
Key data
In December, the retail sales of cosmetics reached 34.14 billion yuan, an increase of 2.5% at the same time. The growth rate slowed down by 5.7 PCT month on month compared with November, mainly due to the strong promotion from October to November; Compared with December 19, the compound growth rate was 5.7%; In the 21st century, the retail sales of cosmetics totaled 402.6 billion yuan, an increase of 14% over the same period of the 19th year, with a compound increase of 11.7%. The prosperity is in the upper reaches of the industry, and the growth rate is second only to sports leisure and cultural office.
Market review and key announcements
Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.63% / the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.35% / the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 1.98%, and the cosmetics sector fell 3.56%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 3004.67pct, which is at the downstream of the industry. In terms of individual stocks, Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) , Lushang Health Industry Development Co.Ltd(600223) and Chaoyun group led the gains, while Yixian e-commerce, Shanghai Lily&Beauty Cosmetics Co.Ltd(605136) , Lafang China Co.Ltd(603630) led the declines.
Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) announced the expected increase of performance in the 21st year: the estimated net profit in the 21st year is 655 million yuan (+ 52%), and the net profit of 4q21 is 235 million yuan (+ 99%).
Risk tips
The development of new products / marketing / channels is less than expected; Loss of key customers of production / agent operators.
