The price of the industrial chain is slightly adjusted, and the production scheduling margin is upward. The demand for Q1 in 2022 is not weak in the off-season: in January 2022, the demand for distributed and overseas rush loading in China is strong, and the demand for the downstream of the industrial chain is increased. With the month on month growth of silicon material output, the price of silicon wafer still rises slightly, which fully verifies the strong demand. In 2022, more than 150000 tons of new silicon material capacity will be released in Q1, After the Spring Festival, the industrial chain may be opened, and the real sharp price reduction will further stimulate the large-scale demand. The demand for centralized purchase of components has been partially released, and the production scheduling of each component factory will continue to increase in January 2022. We expect that the industrial production scheduling will increase by 10-30% in January 2022, basically flat in February, and not light in Q1 off-season in 2022. On the policy side, the central economic work conference showed that the new renewable energy and raw material energy will not be included in the total energy consumption, and further clarify the detailed rules for energy consumption control to stimulate and promote the development of photovoltaic.
China's distributed demand and overseas demand in Q1 2022 may exceed expectations: 1) China: the rise of China's electricity price and the reduction of green loan interest rate stimulate the explosive growth of distributed photovoltaic. In 2022, Q1 distributed photovoltaic will be promoted in full swing. We expect that the whole year will reach 45gw + (30GW for household use and 15gw for Industry and Commerce), and the centralized purchase of central enterprises will be started one after another, The price reduction of the follow-up industrial chain will further stimulate the starting volume of ground power stations. We predict that China's demand may reach 80-90gw in 2022, an increase of 35% +; 2) Overseas: in 2022, Q1 overseas markets such as India, Japan and Poland will rush for equipment goods. In particular, the installed capacity of India in the first quarter may be 8-10gw. We expect the installed capacity of overseas photovoltaic to be 140-160gw in 2022, an increase of 30% +.
The household market is growing rapidly, and the export of components & inverters is growing rapidly: according to the statistics of the national energy administration, the installed capacity of photovoltaic in China in 2021 is about 53gw, of which the newly installed capacity of household photovoltaic is 21.5gw, a year-on-year increase of + 114%, exceeding the market expectation. From January to November 2021, the cumulative installed capacity of PV increased by 34.83gw, a year-on-year increase of + 34.5%. In 2021, the domestic component export volume was 100.6gw, of which the domestic component export volume in December 2021 was 9.41gw, with a ring increase of 14% and a same increase of 45%. The overseas off-season still increased month on month. Based on the calculation of 22.8gw of domestic battery exports in 2021, we expect the installed capacity of 120gw + in the overseas market in 2021. We predict that the global median installed capacity of PV in 2021 / 2022 will be 160gw / 220gw, with an increase of 15% / 38% at the same time.
The data of overseas Brazil, Germany, Turkey and India are bright: 1) the total newly installed capacity in Brazil from January to December 2021 was 5.11gw, with a year-on-year increase of + 55%, exceeding market expectations. Among them, the newly installed capacity in December was 808mw, with a year-on-year increase of + 63% and a month on month increase of + 36%. By 2021, the total installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation connected to the grid in Brazil has been 13GW, of which the installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic has reached 8.40gw, accounting for 64.6%; 2) Germany added 4.98gw of installed capacity from January to November 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 10.75%, slightly exceeding our expectations. The EU carbon emission reduction target was raised to 55%. We expect that Europe will add 27GW / 35gw of installed capacity in 2021 / 2022, a year-on-year increase of + 38% / + 30%; 3) Turkey's on grid electricity price is planned to be extended. In 2021, the installed photovoltaic capacity is 1.15gw, a year-on-year increase of + 70.8%. 4) The total installed capacity of photovoltaic in India in 2021 was 11.88gw, a year-on-year increase of + 218.21%.
Risk tip: competition intensifies and the policy is less than expected.
