What changes have taken place in the policy focus?
Since the end of September, the Central Committee and various ministries and commissions have frequently released signals of real estate stability maintenance. The Politburo meeting proposed "implementing policies for the city to promote the healthy development and virtuous cycle of the real estate industry", and the end of the real estate regulation policy has gradually emerged. Although the policy attitude of "no speculation in housing and housing" at the central level has not changed, a new balance point of deleveraging, risk control and stable growth is gradually taking shape. In the short term, it is more necessary to alleviate the chain negative feedback expectation caused by the excessive superposition of early tightening policies, and give appropriate play to the role of the fulcrum of stable growth. The objectives of medium and long-term soft landing and stable deleveraging remain unchanged.
Where is the backing more active?
In 2021, provinces and cities across the country issued real estate regulation policies more than 350 times. The first three quarters were dominated by tightening, and the frequency of relaxation and tightening policies was the same in the fourth quarter. In December, 19 relaxation policies were issued, much higher than the tightening policies for 9 times. It was also the month in which the number of relaxation policies exceeded the tightening policies for the first time since February. In terms of urban energy levels, the policy tightening and regulation of high-energy cities will be more active in 2021, while relatively low-energy cities will have greater efforts in policy support, which may be related to the fundamentals and prosperity of cities with different energy levels.
How to support the bottom of the place?
Since the fourth quarter, local governments have responded positively in combination with the local market, implemented policies based on the city and carried out precise regulation. The supporting policies mainly include short-term regulation and long-term regulation, that is, industry regulatory policies with flexible adjustment (such as pre-sale policy, financing policy, etc.) Administrative control policies (purchase and sale restrictions, house purchase subsidy policies, etc.) are short-term underpinning and people's livelihood policies (such as affordable housing, talent and settlement policies, etc.) are long-term optimized.
What is the effect of local underpinning?
Since the introduction of supporting policies in the third quarter of 21, the fundamentals of most regions have shown an alternating recovery from November to December, and the market is expected to have marginal improvement. However, on the whole, it is difficult to say that the recovery of market fundamentals in various regions is ideal, and there is no trend improvement, or it is related to the time it takes for the policy to be transmitted to the market, the existing policy relaxation is relatively limited, and the relaxation policies are mostly at the expected level (most cities do not involve purchase and loan restrictions). From the market fundamentals and prosperity data of various regions from February to December 2021, it still takes time for local support policies to take effect, and it is expected that the short-term market adjustment trend will continue.
How to look forward to the follow-up policy direction?
It is expected that in 2022, the overall policy will remain firm, enhance systematic consideration, and improve the long-term mechanism as the bottom guarantee for the sound and healthy development of the industry in the medium and long term. At the same time, the demand side will carry out appropriate countercyclical regulation to create a stable environment for the downshift of the industry and balance it in deleveraging, preventing systemic risks and stable and healthy growth. The demand side meets the reasonable housing demand, and the supply side provides policy support for high-quality real estate enterprises to prevent and resolve the liquidity crisis and accelerate the industry transformation.
It can be further expected that on the supply side: 1. Further improvement of M & a support; 2. Optimization of pre-sale fund supervision system; 3. Support industry transformation. Demand side: 1. Credit support continues to be reflected in the easing of mortgage line, the decline of mortgage interest rate and the shortening of lending cycle; 2. Referring to the adjustment direction of provident fund policies in some cities, the housing and loan recognition standards of commercial loans are not ruled out to be relaxed, and moderately support the release of reasonably improved demand; 3. In combination with the population policy, provide more housing support for families with many children, and do not rule out the differential relaxation of purchase and loan restrictions; 4. Under the extreme situation of fundamental stall, the moderate easing of purchase and loan restrictions in the first and second tier cities cannot be ruled out.
Investment suggestion: grasp the beta of loose policy structure and the alpha of M & A
The industry beta depends on the adjustment of industry structure, the pace of capacity clearing and the strength of policy support. With the increasing pressure on fundamentals and credit in the first quarter, the demand regulation policy needs to be further relaxed; Alpha focuses on the repair of the balance sheet and profit margin of key real estate enterprises by M & A, the accuracy of countercyclical plus leverage, and the long-term excavation of the value of housing scenarios. Policy support and actual M & A are expected to continue to land. Suggestions: 1) high quality leaders: Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Longhu group, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) ; 2) High quality growth: Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Xuhui holding group; 3) High quality property management: Country Garden service, xinchengyue service, Greentown service, China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , poly property, Xuhui Yongsheng.
Risk warning: industry credit risk spread; The downward cycle of industry sales begins; Administrative regulation remained high-pressure, and the pilot strength of real estate tax exceeded expectations
