Event: on January 24, the State Council issued the comprehensive work plan for energy conservation and emission reduction in the 14th five year plan.
Main objectives: by 2025, the energy consumption per unit of China’s GDP will be 13.5% lower than that in 2020, the total energy consumption will be reasonably controlled, and the total emissions of chemical oxygen demand, ammonia nitrogen, nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds will be 8%, 8%, 10% and 10% lower than that in 2020 respectively. Energy conservation and emission reduction policies and mechanisms have been improved, the energy efficiency of key industries and the emission control level of major pollutants have basically reached the international advanced level, and remarkable achievements have been made in the green transformation of economic and social development.
Interpretation: in terms of the main objectives of energy conservation and emission reduction, binding indicators are given for the intensity of energy consumption, and no specific binding indicators are given for the total amount of energy consumption. More consideration should be given to promoting the high-quality development of the national economy through dual control of energy consumption. “By 2025, the energy consumption per unit of China’s GDP will be 13.5% lower than that in 2020”, which is consistent with the statement in the action plan for reaching the peak by 2030 issued on October 26, 2021.
(I) energy consumption:
(1) give priority to energy conservation, strengthen the management of binding indicators for reducing energy consumption intensity, effectively enhance the flexibility of total energy consumption management, and strengthen the connection between the dual control policy of energy consumption and the objectives and tasks of carbon peaking and carbon neutralization. Interpretation: in line with the plan for improving the dual control of energy consumption intensity and total amount issued by the national development and Reform Commission on September 16, 2021, it further highlights the priority of intensity in the dual control of energy consumption.
(2) take the energy output rate as an important basis, comprehensively consider the development stage and other factors, and reasonably determine the goal of reducing energy consumption intensity in each region. Interpretation: energy output rate refers to the ratio of GDP to energy consumption within a certain range. Through the assessment of energy output rate, we can further encourage industrial upgrading and the development of high value-added industries; On the basis of the same energy consumption, projects with higher value added will be given priority.
(3) the State implements the dual objective management of basic objectives and incentive objectives for the reduction of energy consumption intensity in all provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) during the 14th five year plan, which is broken down from all provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) to each year. Interpretation: the decomposition of the indicators to will strengthen the process management of the state’s dual control promotion of all provinces. To avoid the situation that the provinces will rush to meet the targets at the end of the 14th Five Year Plan period.
(4) the new renewable energy power consumption in each region during the 14th Five Year Plan period is not included in the assessment of local total energy consumption. The energy consumption of raw materials is not included in the dual control assessment of national and local energy consumption. Interpretation: it comes down in one continuous line with the exposition of the central economic work conference on December 10, 2021.
In terms of investment, it is beneficial to the photovoltaic industry chain and lithium battery industry chain with high energy output rate: pay attention to Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) , Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) ; Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Betty.
(II) urban and transportation:
(1) promote the construction of low-carbon cities, resilient cities, sponge cities and “waste free cities”. Interpretation: previously, the development objectives of these four cities had been expressed in the relevant documents of xiong’an new area and Lingang New Area of Shanghai free trade zone. The release of the energy conservation and emission reduction work plan will promote this construction goal to the whole country.
(2) actively promote the energy-saving transformation of existing buildings and the integrated construction of building photovoltaic. By 2025, new buildings in cities and towns will fully implement the green building standard.
Interpretation: the construction field is an important energy consuming link on the energy demand side, and building photovoltaic will help reduce building carbon.
(3) orderly promote the construction of infrastructure such as charging and changing electricity, filling (gas), hydrogenation, port and airport shore power. Take the lead in eliminating old cars and purchasing and using energy-saving and new energy vehicles. New and existing parking lots should be equipped with electric vehicle charging facilities or reserve the installation conditions of charging facilities. By 2025, the sales volume of new energy vehicles will reach about 20% of the total sales volume of new vehicles.
Interpretation: the document emphasizes the construction of charging and switching infrastructure. Compared with the current rapid development of new energy vehicle industry, the target of 20% penetration rate in 2025 in the document is relatively conservative. According to the data of China Automobile Association, the market penetration of new energy vehicles reached 19.1% in December 2021.
(4) fully implement the national six emission standards for vehicles and the national four emission standards for non road mobile diesel machinery, and basically eliminate vehicles with national three and below emission standards.
(5) comprehensively promote green express packaging and guide e-commerce enterprises and postal express enterprises to purchase and use express packaging products with green certification.
Investment: it is suggested to pay attention to the building photovoltaic industry chain and lithium battery industry chain: pay attention to Luoyang Glass Company Limited(600876) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Arctech Solar Holding Co.Ltd(688408) , Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) , Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) ; Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) 、 Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) 、 Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) 、 Shandong Weida Machinery Co.Ltd(002026) 。
(III) industry and Park:
(1) by 2025, complete the ultra-low emission transformation of 530 million tons of steel production capacity.
(2) by 2025, through the implementation of energy conservation and carbon reduction actions, the production capacity and data center of key industries such as steel, electrolytic aluminum, cement, flat glass, oil refining, ethylene, synthetic ammonia and calcium carbide will reach the benchmark level of energy efficiency by more than 30%.
(3) pay close attention to the clean and efficient utilization of coal, promote the “three transformation linkage” of coal saving and consumption reduction transformation, heating transformation and flexibility transformation of existing coal-fired power units, and continue to promote the transformation of ultra-low emission of coal-fired power units.
(4) by 2025, a number of energy conservation and environmental protection demonstration parks will be built. (IV) environmental protection:
(1) by 2025, 80000 km of sewage collection pipe network will be added and reconstructed, with an additional sewage treatment capacity of 20 million m3 / day, the harmless disposal rate of urban sludge will reach 90%, the incineration capacity of urban domestic waste will reach about 800000 tons / day, and the incineration capacity of urban domestic waste will account for about 65%.
(2) by 2025, the overall water quality of the Yangtze River Basin will remain excellent, and the water quality of the main stream will be stable and reach class II. By 2025, the water quality in the upper and middle reaches of the main stream of the Yellow River (above Huayuankou) will reach class II. Investment: it is recommended to pay attention to Zhejiang Weiming Environment Protection Co.Ltd(603568) , Wangneng Environment Co.Ltd(002034) , Fujian Longma Environmental Sanitation Equipment Co.Ltd(603686) , Infore Environment Technology Group Co.Ltd(000967) .
(V) rural areas:
By 2025, the treatment rate of rural domestic sewage will reach 40%, the comprehensive utilization rate of straw will be stable at more than 86%, the utilization rate of chemical fertilizer and pesticide of main crops will reach more than 43%, the comprehensive utilization rate of livestock and poultry manure will reach more than 80%, the coverage rates of green prevention and control and unified prevention and control will reach 55% and 45% respectively, and the total ammonia emission of large-scale farms in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and surrounding areas will be reduced by 5%.
Investment suggestion: vigorously promoting energy conservation and emission reduction will better promote the comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development and help achieve the goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutralization. It is suggested to pay attention to the photovoltaic industry chain: pay attention to Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) , Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) , Luoyang Glass Company Limited(600876) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Arctech Solar Holding Co.Ltd(688408) , Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) , Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) ; Focus on the lithium battery industry chain: focus on Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , beiteri, Shandong Weida Machinery Co.Ltd(002026) ; Focus on environmental protection: focus on Zhejiang Weiming Environment Protection Co.Ltd(603568) , Wangneng Environment Co.Ltd(002034) , Fujian Longma Environmental Sanitation Equipment Co.Ltd(603686) , Infore Environment Technology Group Co.Ltd(000967)
Risk analysis: the policy promotion is less than expected.
