The overall position of 21q4 banking sector fell month on month. As of January 24, 2022, the report of A-share fund for the fourth quarter of 2021 has been disclosed. According to statistics, the proportion of 21q4 actively managed fund allocation banking sector, including partial stock and stock type, has decreased by 26bp to 2.24% month on month, which is at a historical low, and the degree of low allocation has reached 13.44% according to the proportion of the circulation market value of the sector in Shanghai and Shenzhen 300. We believe that the main reason for the weakening willingness of 21q4 fund allocation banking sector is the market’s concern about macro growth and credit risk of real estate enterprises. However, combined with the 21-year performance express disclosed by many banks recently, the fundamentals of banks remain stable.
The allocation proportion of heavy position stocks declined as a whole, and Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) gained an increase against the trend. From the position of individual stocks, only Agricultural Bank Of China Limited(601288) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) and Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) were increased by actively managed funds in the fourth quarter of 21, and the proportion of heavy positions in 21q4 increased by 1bp / 5bp / 1bp / 1bp to 0.04% / 0.40% / 0.04% / 0.02% respectively compared with 21q3. The position proportion of other banks decreased to varying degrees in the fourth quarter of 21 years, among which the reduction of heavy position stocks was the most obvious. The position proportion of China Merchants Bank, Societe Generale and Ping An 21q4 decreased by 11bp / 5bp / 8bp to 0.87% / 0.29% / 0.21% month on month respectively.
Investment advice: pessimistic expectations are fully reflected and continue to be optimistic about valuation repair. Since the beginning of the 21st century, with the switching of market style and the marginal repair of pessimistic expectations, the sector has performed well. As of January 24, the cumulative increase of the sector has reached 6.07%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 9.18%. From the recent performance letters of several listed banks, under the rising downward pressure of the economy in the fourth quarter of 21, the banks still maintained a steady and positive trend, with steady growth in revenue, steady expansion at both ends of capital and negative, stable asset quality, and further improvement in the annual profit growth of some high-quality joint-stock banks and urban rural commercial banks under the high base in the third quarter. In addition, since the fourth quarter of the 21st century, the regulator has frequently expressed its position to maintain the stable and healthy development of real estate. Looking forward to 2022, under the bottom line thinking of regulation, we believe that the pressure on the quality of bank assets in 2022 is controllable, and the fundamentals of banks are expected to remain stable under the support of mild policy environment. At present, the static valuation level of the sector is only 0.66X, which is still at a historical low. We are still optimistic about the valuation repair opportunities of the sector under the stabilization of overly pessimistic expectations.
Risk tips: 1) the economic downturn leads to higher than expected pressure on the quality of industrial assets; 2) The decline of interest rate leads to the narrowing of the industry interest margin, which is higher than expected; 3) Repeated outbreaks have led to the development of banking business less than expected.
