Investment perspective:
Energy storage:
1. Shandong Zaozhuang issued the code for development and construction of distributed photovoltaic, proposing to configure energy storage facilities according to 15% – 30% of the installed capacity and 2-4 hours, or lease shared energy storage facilities with the same capacity. (1) Zaozhuang is the first region in Shandong Province to put forward energy storage allocation proportion requirements for distributed photovoltaic, and also the second region in China to put forward energy storage allocation proportion requirements for distributed photovoltaic after Keqiao District, Shaoxing, Zhejiang (December 2021). With the increase of new energy grid connection proportion, the pressure on the power grid is increasing, We expect that all regions will release energy storage configuration requirements for distributed photovoltaic in succession this year; (2) “15% – 30%, duration 2-4 hours” is the highest requirement for energy storage allocation in China at present. The energy storage allocation requirements issued by various regions in 2021 are mostly “10% – 20%, duration 1-2 hours”; (3) The maximum price difference between peak and valley in Shandong Province is 0.78 yuan / kWh, ranking top among all provinces in China. It is economical to configure energy storage facilities.
2. On January 17, an energy storage power station in South Korea caught fire, and its battery supplier was LG; On January 12, an energy storage power station in South Korea caught fire, and its battery supplier was sk. Different from the lithium iron phosphate route selected by Chinese enterprises, Korean enterprises have always followed the ternary lithium circuit line in energy storage power stations. With the acceleration of global energy storage construction and the increase of the proportion of energy storage configured on the user side, higher requirements are put forward for the safety of energy storage. The frequent occurrence of ternary battery accidents will make downstream customers more inclined to choose lithium iron phosphate route to a certain extent.
3. Investment: Huawei’s energy storage system benefits most from the development of China’s energy storage field. We recommend Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , and pay attention to Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) ; Ningde energy storage system, recommend Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Fujian Nebula Electronics.Ltd(300648) , pay attention to Hnac Technology Co.Ltd(300490) ; In PCs field, it is recommended to Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Shenzhen Sinexcel Electric Co.Ltd(300693) , and pay attention to Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) .
Grid:
1. According to the interface news report, the State Grid held an annual work meeting on January 13, and plans to invest 501.2 billion yuan in the power grid in 2022, a record high. According to China Energy News, during the 14th Five Year Plan period, the State Grid planned to build the “24 AC and 14 DC” UHV project, with a total investment of 380 billion yuan. In 2022, the State Grid plans to start 13 UHV lines of “10 AC and 3 DC”. Under the background of the new power system, the power grid is facing great transformation pressure, which has formed a large investment demand from the objective conditions, such as UHV, digital power grid, distribution network transformation and so on. In addition, the first batch of large-scale wind power photovoltaic bases have been started orderly recently, and the second batch of large-scale base projects have been declared. The accelerated construction of new energy bases puts forward requirements for the construction progress of power transmission channels. We expect that the UHV construction is expected to exceed expectations during the 14th five year plan period.
2. According to the disclosure of State Grid e-commerce platform, from January to November 2021, the bidding amount of State Grid smart meters was 20 billion, an increase of 50% over the whole year of 2020. According to the national metrological verification regulation of the people’s Republic of China, the verification cycle of electricity meters generally does not exceed 8 years. With the start of a new round of meter replacement cycle, it is expected that the meter will start a new round of business cycle. The new generation of smart meters has added modules such as remote communication and power quality detection, and the value of a single meter has increased significantly. With the launch of the carbon market, enterprises and governments have monitoring needs for key nodes of electric energy and carbon emission, and measurement equipment is expected to become the rigid demand for carbon reduction.
3. In December 2020, the Ministry of industry and information technology and other three departments issued the transformer energy efficiency improvement plan (2021-2023). The document has been implemented since June 2021, and it is proposed that the operation proportion of energy-saving transformers in the grid will be increased by 10% by 2023 (compared with the end of 2020). The recent power grid bidding has been reflected. Stock scale: there are about 17 million transformers in operation in China’s power grid. We expect the average annual demand to be about 570000 from 2021 to 2023. According to the average price of 20000 yuan / set, the annual market scale is about 11.4 billion yuan. Incremental scale: the State Grid tenders about 200000-300000 distribution transformers every year. Considering the industrial and commercial demand, we expect the annual incremental scale to be about 600000. According to the proportion of 75% of the new fields, the annual demand for energy-saving transformers is 450000 (9 billion yuan). The total annual market demand is about 20.4 billion yuan. The promotion of energy-saving transformer will increase the consumption of amorphous materials and high-grade silicon steel in the iron core, and the demand for energy-saving transformer and upstream materials is expected to increase.
In the context of accelerating the construction of a new power system, the power grid investment increased during the 14th Five Year Plan period, and there were great opportunities for structural investment in some fields. It is recommended to pay attention to:
1) UHV and Gil: Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) , Xj Electric Co.Ltd(000400) , Beijing Sifang Automation Co.Ltd(601126) , Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) , Jiangsu Ankura Smart Transmission Engineering Technology Co.Ltd(300617) ;
2) grid side energy storage: Yunnan Wenshan Electric Power Co.Ltd(600995) , China Southern Power Grid technology, Shaanxi Baoguang Vacuum Electronic Apparatus Co.Ltd(600379) , Guangzhou Zhiguang Electric Co.Ltd(002169) , Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd(002028) , Beijing Sifang Automation Co.Ltd(601126) ;
3) smart meter: Hangzhou Sunrise Technology Co.Ltd(300360) , Acrel Co.Ltd(300286) , Jiangsu Linyang Energy Co.Ltd(601222) , Hexing Electrical Co.Ltd(603556) , Beijing Yupont Electric Power Technology Co.Ltd(688597) ;
4) energy saving transformer: Yunlu shares, Advanced Technology & Materials Co.Ltd(000969) , Jiangsu Yangdian Science & Technology Co.Ltd(301012) , State Grid Yingda Co.Ltd(600517) ;
5) intelligent monitoring and maintenance of power grid: Hangzhou Kelin Electric Co.Ltd(688611) , Zhiyang Innovation Technology Co.Ltd(688191) , Hangzhou Shenhao Technology Co.Ltd(300853) , Yijiahe Technology Co.Ltd(603666) , China Southern Power Grid technology.
Risk tips:
The cost reduction of energy storage is less than the expected risk; The support of energy storage policy is less than the expected risk; The progress of market-oriented reform of power trading is less than the expected risk; The investment of State Grid is lower than the expected risk.
