Key targets:
Recommended Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) , Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) ; Follow Luoyang Glass Company Limited(600876) .
Photovoltaic:
1. In 2021, China added 53gw of photovoltaic installed capacity, and the policy continued to promote the improvement of photovoltaic demand. According to the statistics of the national energy administration, the installed capacity of new photovoltaic power generation in China in 2021 is about 53gw, which is located in the upper range of CPIA’s forecast data in November (45 ~ 55gw). Among them, distributed photovoltaic adds about 29gw, accounting for more than 50% for the first time. On the one hand, the subsidy for household photovoltaic continues, on the other hand, distributed projects can accept higher component prices; Under the background that national policies continue to support the development of new energy, we judge that distributed photovoltaic will still maintain a high-speed growth trend in 2022.
2. The global shipment concentration of components will be further improved in 2021. According to the statistics of pvinfolink, the global top 10 component shipments in 2021 were about 160gw + (Longji / Trina Solar / Jingao / Jingke / atlas ranked in the top five, and there were 8 Chinese enterprises in the top ten). The market share reached 90%, and the concentration was further improved compared with that in 2020. The advantages of leading companies in volume, cost and channel end will be further highlighted in the future. Under the background of n-type product expansion, they will still show strong competitiveness, and the market share is expected to remain high.
3. The price game in the industrial chain continued, the upstream price rebounded, and the component price remained stable. According to solarzoom’s statistics, under the background of warmer downstream demand and positive goods preparation, the prices of upstream silicon materials / silicon wafers / battery wafers rebounded this week; Driven by strong overseas demand, the operating rate of component end improved significantly compared with that at the end of 21, but the price remained stable under the background of no significant change in downstream acceptance.
4. Investment: (1) although the price of the industrial chain is still in the game stage in the short term, the certainty of price reduction is strong in the medium and long term, and the expectation of improving the prosperity of demand is strong, which promotes the large-scale volume of the industrial chain. It is mainly recommended that there are leaders Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) with poor expectation in the market. (2) The price of some auxiliary materials may rise in 2022q1 due to the release of demand, the price rise of raw materials, structural supply and demand shortage and other factors. It is recommended to focus on Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) and pay attention to Luoyang Glass Company Limited(600876) . (3) In the process of module price decline, overseas demand and distributed photovoltaic demand will be released first. It is recommended that the whole county promote distributed leading Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) , Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) .
Wind power:
1. Domestic substitution + Dual sea strategy is the long-term development direction of wind power industry. Under the catalysis of “carbon neutralization”, coastal provinces are strengthening the planning and construction of offshore wind power. At the same time, the process of sea wind parity is expected to accelerate under the background of large-scale and domestic substitution. In the future, if the national level also continues to strengthen the development and approval of projects in sea areas under state control, we believe that the new installed capacity of offshore wind power in China is expected to exceed expectations during the “14th five year plan”.
2. Investment: (1) Haifeng construction is expected to exceed expectations. Under the logic of domestic substitution, recommend Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) and pay attention to Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) , Jiangyin Hengrun Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(603985) ; (2) Under the domestic substitution logic, focus on Zhejiang Xcc Group Co.Ltd;(603667) , Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) ; (3) Under the profit recovery logic: focus on Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) and Sany Heavy energy (to be listed).
Risk tips:
The progress of issuing policies is less than expected; Overseas photovoltaic demand is less than expected risk; The recovery of fan bidding price is lower than expected, and the price of raw materials in the industrial chain fluctuates.
