Myanmar’s supply is blocked and nickel prices continue to rise sharply
This month, the people’s defense forces of tigyaing town blew up three power towers supplied by Tagaung Taung nickel processing plant in Sagaing Province, Myanmar. The project is an overseas nickel smelting project of China Nonferrous Nickel Industry Co., Ltd. It is estimated that the output will be 60000-65000 tons in 2021, and its products will basically flow to China. Affected by the news and low inventory, nickel prices continued to rise sharply this week, with LME nickel rising 8.86% to close at US $24160.00/ton, an 11 year high. We believe that with the gradual release of the production capacity of Chinese funded overseas laterite nickel mines and the steady growth of the demand for downstream new energy vehicles, the nickel price is expected to remain strong. It is recommended to pay attention to Gem Co.Ltd(002340) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) and Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) .
The price of battery grade lithium carbonate exceeded 350000, and the short-term supply tension continued to be maintained
Lithium metal rose 9.20% this week to close at 1780000 yuan / ton; Lithium hydroxide rose 8.54% to close at 292416 yuan / ton; Battery grade lithium carbonate rose 7.25% to close at 355000 yuan / ton; Industrial grade lithium carbonate rose 6.77% to close at 331000 yuan / ton, and the price of lithium carbonate rose nearly 30% in three weeks. In the short term, the tight supply of lithium carbonate is difficult to change, and the price is expected to continue to rise. It is recommended to pay attention to Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) .
Steady growth policy supports commodity demand. Industrial metal prices rose more or fell less this week
Copper on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell – 0.24% to close at 71290 yuan / ton this week; Aluminum rose 0.94% to close at 21525 yuan / ton; Lead rose 0.55% to close at 15655 yuan / ton; Zinc rose 1.22% to close at 25235 yuan / ton; Tin rose 8.71% to close at 332640 yuan / ton. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream procurement rhythm of copper, aluminum and other varieties has slowed down, and the inventory has increased recently, but it remains at a historically low position. We believe that under the macro environment of steady growth, the demand for industrial metals is expected to improve. Basically, the supply and demand pattern of copper is good, and the price is expected to remain high. It is recommended to pay attention to Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co.Ltd(000630) , Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) and Jiangxi Copper Company Limited(600362) .
Market panic has improved, and gold prices rose slightly this week
US stocks fell sharply this week, market panic increased, and precious metal prices rose slightly. This week, spot gold in London rose 0.91% to close at US $1834.42/oz, while the US dollar index rose 0.50% to close at 95.63; COMEX gold rose 1.08% to US $1831.80 per ounce this week, while Comex Silver Rose 6.23% to US $24.32 per ounce. In the short term, the rise of crude oil prices may increase the inflationary pressure in the United States. The market has relatively consistent expectations for the process of raising interest rates, put pressure on gold prices in 2022, and maintain the view that gold prices fluctuate in a narrow range throughout the year.
Risk tip: the Fed’s policy has changed more than expected, and the global economic recovery is less than expected.
