Subsidies for new energy vehicles declined as scheduled, and many brands raised the guidance price
1. Recently, several auto companies have raised the official guidance price of new energy vehicles. 1) Byd Company Limited(002594) : the price increase announcement was issued on January 21. Due to the rise of raw material prices and the decline of subsidies, the company will increase the guidance price (after subsidies) of Dynasty Series and Ocean network new energy models by 1000-7000 yuan from February; 2) Tesla: on December 31, 2021, the subsidized selling prices of model 3 / model y were increased by 10000 yuan / 21088 yuan to 265700 yuan / 301800 yuan respectively; 3) Xiao Peng: from January 11, the price after subsidy will be increased. The price of P7 will be increased by 4300-5900 yuan, the price of P5 and g3i will be increased by 4800-5400 yuan, and the price of P7 / P5 / g3i after the latest subsidy will be 224000-41000 yuan / 162700-229300 yuan / 154600-193200 yuan respectively; 4) Nezha: from January 4, the price of Nezha V, Nezha u and other models will be increased by 2000-5000 yuan after subsidies; 5) GAC ea'an: aion LX will increase its price by 4000 yuan from January 1; The subsidized price of 2022 aion s plus is increased by 7000-14000 yuan to 153800-179800 yuan compared with 2021; 6) Zero run: the subsidized selling price of 2022 T03 released on December 28, 2021 increased by 81-9100 yuan to 68900-84900 yuan compared with 2021; 7) FAW Volkswagen: since February 28, the selling prices of id.6 crozz and id.4 crozz pure electric vehicles have been increased by 5400 yuan (the difference between manufacturers' subsidies for supporting new energy before February 28).
2. The subsidy for new energy vehicle purchase declined as scheduled. On December 31, 2021, the four ministries and commissions jointly issued the notice on the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles in 2022. According to the subsidy policy plan issued in April 2020, the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles in 2022 will decline by 30% on the basis of 2021. Among pure electric vehicles, the subsidy for NEDC models with a range of more than 300km but less than 400km will be reduced by 3900 yuan to 9100 yuan from 13000 yuan before; The subsidy for models with a range of more than 400 kilometers was reduced from 18000 yuan to 12600 yuan; The subsidy for plug-in hybrid models (including adding programs) will be reduced by 2000 yuan to 4800 yuan.
Weekly data of the Federation of passenger cars: the retail sales in the first half of January became positive for the first time in nearly six months compared with the same period last year. According to the data of the Federation of passenger cars, the retail sales of passenger cars in the first two weeks of January (from January to 16) were 120500, with a yoy / mom of + 15% / + 2% and a batch sales of - 2% / - 9% respectively, Among them, the year-on-year retail data is the first year-on-year growth since 8m21 (the data of the first two weeks of 8m21 to 12m21 are - 9% / - 9% / - 11% / - 21% / - 12% year-on-year respectively). We expect the retail data in the first half of January to strengthen year-on-year. On the one hand, it benefits from the release of deferred demand driven by the deep recovery of inventory, on the other hand, it is positively affected by the early spring festival this year (February 1, 2022 vs February 12, 2021).
Investment suggestion: we believe that from the perspective of medium-term investment, there is no need to worry about the recovery intensity of core shortage. With the deep recovery of inventory, wholesale and retail sales in the auto market is expected to usher in a synchronous recovery. 1. For the whole vehicle, it is recommended to pay attention to Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) with large replenishment space and market share, as well as Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) with upward product cycle. 2. Suppliers of automotive electronics related parts are expected to realize domestic substitution and price volume increase in the acceleration of the industry. It is suggested to pay attention to: Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) (EPB + wire controlled braking), Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) (light control), Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) (intelligent lamp), Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) (Intelligent cabin system), Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) (air suspension), etc.
Risk tip: the mitigation progress of core shortage in the automotive industry is less than expected, the recovery of industry demand is less than expected, the process of automotive intelligent industry is less than expected, and the development of new energy vehicle industry is less than expected.
