Special topic of this week: the growth rate of social zero slowed down in December, and the growth rate of furniture and clothing retail was under pressure: dragged down by the epidemic, the year-on-year growth rate of social zero fell in December. In December 2021, the total amount of social zero in China was 4.13 trillion yuan, year-on-year + 1.7%. From January to December, the total amount of social zero in China was 44.08 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 12.5%. Among them, the retail sales of furniture in December was 17.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 3.1%, and the sales of building materials and home stores in that month was 119.524 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 39.93%; The retail sales of cultural office supplies was 41.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 7.4%; The retail sales of gold, silver and jewelry reached 28.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 0.20%; The growth rate of clothing retail sales is under pressure. The retail sales of clothing, shoes and hats and knitwear textiles in China reached 148.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 2.3%.
Investment strategy in 2022: seek “progress” in “change” and take the lead in subdividing leaders. Furniture: focus on domestic market channel reform opportunities. Among them, it is recommended to pay attention to Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) , Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) , Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) , Goldenhome Living Co.Ltd(603180) for customized furniture; For finished furniture, it is suggested to pay attention to Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) , Qumei Home Furnishings Group Co.Ltd(603818) , etc. Papermaking, packaging and printing: subdivide the track pattern and optimize the strong. It is recommended to pay attention to Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) , Shanying International Holdings Co.Ltd(600567) , Xianhe Co.Ltd(603733) , Quzhou Wuzhou Special Paper Co.Ltd(605007) , Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) , Hangzhou Haoyue Personal Care Co.Ltd(605009) , etc. Entertainment and jewelry sector: the consumption upgrading continues and the prosperity rises. It is recommended to pay attention to Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc(603899) and Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) . Retail of home building materials: professional home building materials stores are still dominant, and digital and high-frequency consumption empowerment have become the mainstream. It is suggested to pay attention to Easyhome New Retail Group Corporation Limited(000785) , Red Star Macalline Group Corporation Ltd(601828) leading in digital transformation. Textile and clothing: the trend of national fashion continues, and there are good opportunities for sports shoes and children’s wear. It is suggested to pay attention to Anta sports, Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) , Zhejiang Semir Garment Co.Ltd(002563) , Winner Medical Co.Ltd(300888) , Bosideng, etc.
Market review this week: this week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04%, the light industry manufacturing industry fell 1.83%, slightly underperforming the market, and the textile and garment industry fell 3.41%, underperforming the market. Among them, the paper sector fell 0.79%, the packaging and printing sector fell 4.72%, the home sector rose 0.23%, the entertainment light industry sector fell 4.22%, and other light industry sectors fell 4.44%. The top three gainers of light manufacturing industry this week were Xiamen Anne Co.Ltd(002235) (30.69%), Jiangshan Oupai Door Industry Co.Ltd(603208) (21.42%), Jiangsu Jinling Sports Equipment Co.Ltd(300651) (17.57%); The top three declines were Shanghai Haishun New Pharmaceutical Packaging Co.Ltd(300501) (- 28.11%), Banbao Co.Ltd(603398) (- 15.28%) and Shanghai Shunho New Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002565) (- 14.54%). The top three increases in the textile and garment industry are Harson Trading (China) Co.Ltd(603958) (28.84%), Bros Eastern Co.Ltd(601339) (12.4%) and Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) (9.59%); The top three declines were Winner Medical Co.Ltd(300888) (- 13.18%), Hangzhou Nbond Nowovens Co.Ltd(603238) (- 12.85%) and Xinjiang La Chapelle Fashion Co.Ltd(603157) (- 12.38%).
One week key data tracking: the price of dissolved pulp inner sector this week was 6750 yuan / ton, unchanged from last week. Natural color pulp: Jinxing (Chile) / bleached coniferous pulp: kailipu (Canada) / bleached coniferous pulp: Yinxing (Chile) increased by + 7% / + 16% / + 9% to US $800 / 860 / 840 / ton respectively compared with last week, and the external quotation of other pulp species was flat compared with last week. Finished paper prices were flat compared with last week. The number of commercial housing transactions in 30 large and medium-sized cities this week was 29807, up 30% from last week; The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities was 3.22 million square meters, up 26% from last week. This week, China’s cotton price index: 328 was 22645 yuan / ton, up 185 yuan / ton from last week; Cotlook: a index: 1% tariff is 21463 yuan / ton, up 1090 yuan / ton from last week; The price difference between Chinese and foreign cotton was 1182 yuan / ton, down 905 yuan / ton from last week; The closing price of cotton futures on the Zheng stock exchange this week was 22145 yuan / ton, down 75 yuan / ton from last week; The closing price of cotton futures on the New York Stock Exchange was 121.08 cents / pound, up 1.31 cents / pound from last week.
Risk warning: the price of raw materials fluctuates sharply; Risk of sluggish terminal demand; Exchange rate fluctuation risk.
