\u3000\u3000 Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) (300413)
In the fourth quarter of 2021, the variety show scheduling and Xiaomang e-commerce investment superimposed the business adjustment of subsidiaries, resulting in pressure on short-term performance, but the long-term development trend will not be changed
In 2021, the company's profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 2.04 ~ 2.14 billion (a year-on-year increase of 2.9% ~ 7.96%), deducting the non attributable profit of RMB 2 ~ 2.1 billion (a year-on-year increase of 8.3% ~ 13.75%), and the profit attributable to the parent company in the fourth quarter of 2021 was RMB 60 ~ 160 million (a year-on-year decrease of 84% ~ 57%). In 2021, the business revenue of the company's advertising and operators increased by more than 30% respectively, and the number of effective members of mango TV reached 50.4 million (a year-on-year increase of 40%), highlighting the stability of mango's basic market;
In the fourth quarter of 2021, due to the adjustment of variety show scheduling and the superposition of new business investment and the business adjustment of subsidiaries, the company also suffered from the short-term pressure on profits due to variety show scheduling in the third quarter of 2019. However, the company actively optimized the content and continued to innovate to promote the commercial and social value of sister riding the wind and waves in June 2020. On the stock side, at different stages of development, the subsidiary business also underwent structural adjustment in 2021, resulting in a year-on-year decline in operating indicators in the short term. However, in the medium and long term, the optimization of internal business is also to prepare for the next new development. On the new business side, the company's increased investment strategy also meets the needs of users. For example, Guochao content e-commerce investment brings growth potential for the new development of subsequent companies in the new track (Xiaomang peak dau reaches 1.26 million people, vertical content e-commerce features are superimposed with mango content gene assistance, and the new business is expected to promote the second growth curve of the company).
High growth of main business performance in 2018-2020 layout of content e-commerce in 2020 2021 external policy disturbance internal re optimization 2022 depends on the content
In November 2017, happy buy plans to acquire 100% equity of five companies including happy sunshine with RMB 11.551 billion (RMB 19.66 / share) through private placement, and the listed companies will build the layout of all media industrial chain and create mango media ecology; On June 21, 2018, 589 million shares were issued to buy happy sunshine (RMB 9.5 billion), mango mutual Entertainment (RMB 508 million), Tianyu media (RMB 503 million), mango film and television (RMB 510 million) and mango Entertainment (RMB 430 million), with a total of RMB 11.55075 billion and supporting funds raised. The targets of acquisition from 2018 to 2020 achieved performance and realized return to parent profits of RMB 870 million, RMB 1.16 billion and RMB 1.98 billion; In 2021, the fixed increase of 4.5 billion yuan (49.81 yuan / share) and equity transfer of 9365 million shares (47.56 yuan / share) will be realized. The company continues to increase the content. In 20201, it will benefit from popular variety shows such as sister riding the wind and waves, brother cutting through thorns and thorns, goodbye to my lover and word-of-mouth dramas such as I'm fine in another country, wolf hunter and twelfth second, Effectively drive the growth of the company's advertising and operator revenue. With the fixed increase of capital investment, we will also see the benign growth of advertising and member revenue driven by the supply of high-quality content in 2022.
Mango TV has a promising future for content builder gene reconstruction
With the release of the performance of long video iqiyi and Netflix, the business model of long video has been criticized, which affects its long-term valuation. However, unlike other Internet strong genes of long video, mango TV is committed to building high-quality content as the core starting point, just as Netflix points out that its business model is not a simple buyer of content, but a builder, Mango TV is building a series of high-quality content. External policy fluctuations and input-output ratio fluctuations do not change its direction of innovation in high-quality content. In 2022, at the entertainment end, the third season of the series of entertainment sister IP, the wife series, the goodbye lover series and the love series of the daughters can be expected. In addition, the innovative entertainment music competition program "sound is alive", the first suspense reasoning program of China's entertainment series "reasoning has begun" and "big table tennis player" of "sports + entertainment" will also start a new journey in 2022; In 2022, the monsoon theater will continue to focus on five categories of "warm reality, new theme, urban topic, ancient legend and suspense involved", layout content production and continue the monsoon quality
Profit forecast
It is predicted that the revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 16.7 billion yuan, 19.4 billion yuan and 22.1 billion yuan respectively, the profit attributable to the parent company will be 2.06 billion yuan, 2.51 billion yuan and 3.15 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 1.1, 1.34 and 1.68 yuan respectively. The current share price corresponding to PE will be 36, 29 and 23 times respectively. In 2021, the company will increase the e-commerce of hand coded content and Guochao content. In 2022, there will be rich content from drama to variety show, which is expected to lay a good development trend in 2022, Based on the steady growth of the main business, new business elasticity and changes in the industry pattern, the "recommended" investment rating is given.
Risk tips
The risk that the new business exploration is not as expected, the risk that the shadow tour works have not been reviewed, the potential risk caused by the artist's own factors, the risk of inefficient use of raised funds, and the risk of macroeconomic fluctuations.
