\u3000\u3000 Tianrun Industry Technology Co.Ltd(002283) (002283)
[key investment points]
The crankshaft connecting rod faucet of medium and heavy trucks can enhance the downstream concentration and help the growth. The company is the largest professional manufacturer of crankshafts and the largest manufacturer of broken connecting rods for medium and heavy commercial vehicles in China. Relying on high-quality products and large-scale supply capacity, the company has reached in-depth cooperation with Weichai, Cummins, Shangchai and other head supporting enterprises. The matching rate of mainstream commercial vehicle engine customers in China has reached 95%, and the market share of medium and heavy truck crankshafts / connecting rods has reached 60% / 40%; Benefiting from the accumulation of technical advantages and the further expansion of production capacity, the production and sales volume of crankshaft and connecting rod may reach a new level at the time of national five / national six standard switching. The sales volume of crankshaft and connecting rod of the company is expected to exceed 2 / 7 million in 2021. With the increasing concentration of the heavy truck industry, the company is expected to benefit from the leading manufacturing strength and stable customer relationship, and further improve the market share of the main industry.
The air suspension market has broad growth space, and Chinese suppliers welcome development opportunities. At present, the penetration rate of commercial vehicle air suspension in Europe and the United States has exceeded 80%, while China's commercial vehicle air suspension market is driven by the technical conditions for the safety of motor vehicles (gb7258-2017), the regulations on the overall dimensions, axle loads and mass limits of automobiles, trailers and motor trains (gb1589-2016) and the overweight of overload control, The passenger car air suspension market is jointly driven by the improvement of product power of vehicle enterprises + the demand for battery protection + the decline of suspension system cost. It is estimated that China's air suspension market space will reach 37.6 billion yuan in 2025, including 14 billion yuan for commercial vehicles and 23.6 billion yuan for passenger vehicles. Chinese suppliers who master the core components and system assembly technology of air suspension are expected to accelerate their market share and break through the monopoly pattern of overseas suppliers by virtue of agile response and price advantage.
With the triple advantages of technology, manufacturing and customers, the dual path helps the company's air suspension business take off. The company has rich patents related to air suspension, and has the self-made ability of core parts such as air spring, shock absorber and distribution valve and the integration ability of air suspension system; The deep cultivation of traditional main business creates the company's strong manufacturing strength and brings cost advantages to self-made air suspension system parts; Stable cooperative relationship with existing customers to help expand the business of air suspension. The company locates the manufacturer of the air suspension system of the whole vehicle, cuts into the commercial vehicle market and simultaneously develops the passenger vehicle market. At present, it cooperates with 8 Trailer manufacturers and 6 main engine manufacturers. At present, the company has achieved mass supply of air suspension parts and assembly products to some customers. The company is expected to grow into a domestic air suspension supplier across the commercial vehicle and passenger vehicle markets and with the supply capacity of parts and system assemblies in the future. In the first half of 2021, the company's air suspension business revenue is 100 million yuan, which is expected to reach 200 million yuan in the whole year, and the second growth curve is gradually taking shape.
[investment advice]
As the leader of China's medium and heavy truck crankshaft connecting rod, the company is expected to benefit from the increased concentration of the heavy truck market and obtain a higher market share in the stock market. At the same time, the unit price of crankshaft products in the sixth stage of China may further increase with the technical requirements. The company's air suspension business is progressing smoothly, a number of commercial vehicle products have been supplied to customers in batches, and the air suspension systems of two passenger vehicles have been loaded and debugged; With the achievement of production capacity and the landing of orders, the business may face rapid growth. Considering the phased impact of the decline in the sales volume of 21q4 heavy trucks on a month on month basis, the revenue from 2021 to 2023 was adjusted from 5.215/6.053/7.099 billion yuan to 5.074/6.53/7.100 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company was adjusted from 5.84/7.52/941 million yuan to 5.68/7.53/941 million yuan, the corresponding EPS was 0.50/0.66/0.83 yuan, and the corresponding PE was about 19 / 14 / 12 times. Considering that the company leads the industry in the subdivided field of crankshaft and connecting rod and the development momentum of new air suspension business is good, the company's rating is raised to "buy" based on 20 times PE in 2022 and a target price of 13.2 yuan within 6 months.
[risk tips]
Profit risk caused by continuous fluctuation of raw material price;
Operating risks caused by fluctuations in heavy truck industry;
The launch of the guiding policy for the assembly of commercial vehicle air suspension was not as expected;
The development progress of air suspension system products and the acquisition of new projects were not as expected.
