\u3000\u3000 Hangzhou Hopechart Iot Technology Co.Ltd(688288) (688288)
[matters]
According to the performance forecast released by the company, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is expected to be about 29 million yuan, a decrease of about 59.3066 million yuan compared with the same period of last year, a year-on-year decrease of about 67.16%. The net profit after deducting non recurring profit and loss is expected to be about 21 million yuan, a decrease of about 60.2212 million yuan compared with the same period of last year, a year-on-year decrease of about 74.14%, which is lower than the previous expectation.
[comment]
According to the company's performance forecast, the company's performance fell sharply in 2021. Combined with the industry and the company's own factors, we believe that there are four main reasons for the decline:
1) during the reporting period, affected by the slowdown of economic growth and the contraction of terminal demand such as infrastructure real estate, the downstream heavy truck, construction machinery and other commercial vehicle markets have remained depressed since the second quarter; With the implementation of "national VI of diesel vehicles" after July 1, the demand for heavy, medium and light trucks was released in advance in the first half of 2021. The customer demand decreased significantly in the second half of 2021 and did not improve significantly in the fourth quarter. Most of the company's front loading business had a great impact on the company's revenue, and the growth was weak in the reporting period.
2) in the aftermarket, affected by covid-19 epidemic, financial policy and business model, the relevant policies in the aftermarket were promoted slowly and the implementation cycle was prolonged, resulting in a significant decrease in the company's aftermarket revenue during the reporting period compared with the same period of last year.
3) in 2021, the semiconductor supply chain showed continuous tension, which pushed up the purchase price of the company's chips, modules and other raw materials, lowered the gross profit margin of the products, and then compressed the profit space of the company.
4) in order to meet the needs of business development and continuous innovation, the company continues to increase R & D investment and further enhance the strength of the R & D team through the introduction of high-level talents. The R & D cost has increased significantly compared with the same period of last year. According to the data of the third quarterly report of 2021, the R & D cost rate of the company is 24.43%, an increase of about 5pct year-on-year, which has a direct impact on the profitability, Net interest rates fell sharply.
Bid farewell to the low performance in 2021. We believe that the company is expected to see a significant improvement in performance in 2022. The main growth will come from the following four aspects:
1) thanks to the implementation of the national six standard, all heavy-duty diesel vehicles in China need to be forced to install compliant remote emission management on-board terminals (t-boxes) before leaving the factory, which are used to collect, store and transmit vehicle OBD information and engine emission data. After the national six standard is put into operation, the penetration rate of front mounted t-boxes in the light truck, medium truck and heavy truck market will increase to 100%, bringing huge increment, However, due to the sharp decline in the sales volume of commercial vehicles in the second half of 2021, the benefits of the company are not obvious. We believe that commercial vehicles are production tools and the demand is relatively rigid. After excluding the short-term disturbance of guoliu on the sales rhythm, the company will return to the normal level in 2022, and the revenue of this business is expected to increase significantly.
2) on December 31, 2021, the National Standards Committee issued the announcement of China National Standards No. 17 of 2021, approving the publication of 530 recommended national standards and 2 amendments to national standards. Among them, the new standard GB / t19056-2021 of vehicle traveling data recorder will replace GB / t19056-2012 and will be officially implemented from July 1, 2022. Referring to the content of the exposure draft, the new national standard driving recorder will add audio and video recording, WiFi communication, wireless public network communication, automatic timing, driver identification and other functions, and the positioning requirements will be further enhanced. In the investor Research Report in April 2021, the company said that if the new standards of the exposure draft were followed, the unit price of new products would be increased by about three times. According to the company's relevant business income and sales volume in 2020, the current unit price of driving recorder is about 500 yuan, and the product unit price under the new standard is expected to reach 1500 yuan. From the perspective of the space for price increase, after the implementation of the new standard of vehicle traveling data recorder, the space of this segment market is expected to increase significantly, and the company will benefit significantly.
3) in terms of business expansion of new customers, the company became a supplier of Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co.Ltd(000951) in 2020 and began to realize mass supply in 2021. The sales volume of Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co.Ltd(000951) in the heavy truck market has been higher than that of Shaanqi, the company's largest customer in recent years. It is expected that after mass delivery of multiple product lines in the future, it will contribute an important increment to the company's revenue.
4) at the beginning of 2021, the company established Beijing Yubo Automobile Control System Co., Ltd., which is responsible for product research and development in the direction of automobile controller. At present, the promotion of BCM is the most smooth. Since its establishment in February 2021, Beijing Yubo has successively signed technology development agreements with multiple main engine manufacturers, and BCM products have been delivered in batches to a large main engine factory. The company's recent investor relations activity records show that in terms of automotive electronics business, the company will develop and provide products along the established technical route, such as DCM, TPMS Seat controller, gateway and other products, and gradually extend to the direction of domain controller to strive for the full range coverage of controller products. We believe that the company's automotive electronics business is progressing smoothly. Under the trend of domestic substitution, the company is expected to occupy a certain share in the field of commercial vehicles in the future, and the shipment volume is expected to increase significantly in 2022.
Based on the company's performance forecast and the above influencing factors, we lowered the company's revenue forecast for 2021 and raised the company's expense rate forecast, so as to reduce the profit forecast for 2021, and the forecasts for 2022 and 2023 remain unchanged. It is estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 430 million yuan, 791 million yuan and 1092 million yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 29 million yuan, 121 million yuan and 190 million yuan, and the EPS will be 29 million yuan, 121 million yuan and 1.90 yuan, corresponding to 119 times, 29 times and 18 times of PE respectively. We are optimistic about the future performance of the company and maintain the "buy" rating.
[risk tips]
The recovery of commercial vehicle sales was less than expected;
The development progress of new customers is less than expected;
The progress of new business development is less than expected;
Industry competition intensifies;
The supply of upstream core devices continues to be tight.
