\u3000\u3000 Beijing Haohua Energy Resource Co.Ltd(601101) (601101)
Event: on January 24, 2022, the company released a performance forecast that the net profit attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in 2021 is expected to be about 1.91 billion yuan to 2.06 billion yuan, an increase of 1.862 billion yuan to 2.012 billion yuan over 48 million yuan in the same period of last year, a year-on-year increase of 3887.6% ~ 4200.81%.
In the fourth quarter, the performance increased by - 5.03% ~ 17.84% month on month. In 2021, the company expects to realize the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company of about 1.91 billion yuan to 2.06 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3887.6% ~ 4200.81%, of which the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company in a single quarter in the fourth quarter of 2021 is expected to be 623 ~ 773 million yuan, with a month-on-month increase of - 5.03% ~ 17.84%, turning losses into profits year-on-year.
The growth attribute of the company is obvious, and the scarcity of capacity increment is strong. According to the announcement, in 2020, the company's Jingxi mining area will be fully withdrawn, and the company's core production capacity will be transferred to Inner Mongolia and Ningxia. The main mines are hongqingliang mine and GaoJiaLiang mine, with a total production capacity of 13.5 million tons / year. Among them, the company announced on December 24, 2021 that hongqingliang mine has obtained a safe production license, which is conducive to the release of production capacity of hongqingliang mine. In terms of capacity under construction, hongdunzi coal industry has another capacity under construction of 4.8 million tons / year, of which the capacity of Hongyi and honger coal mines is 2.4 million tons / year respectively. According to the announcement, Hongyi and honger coal mines are expected to be put into operation in 2022 and 2023 respectively; At the same time, the company is still actively looking for coal mining projects in coal resource rich areas, and the company's production capacity is expected to have greater growth space in the next five years. The company's growth attribute is obvious. At present, the new capacity in the coal industry is insufficient, and the company's capacity increment is highly scarce.
Spot sales, strong performance flexibility. According to the company's interactive platform, the company's coal sales are mainly based on market price sales, so it is more expected to fully enjoy the dividend of coal price rise in the upward cycle of coal price. Due to the low proportion of the company's long-term association, the company's performance is flexible. We expect the coal industry to maintain a high boom in 2022, and the company's performance elasticity is expected to continue to release.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.942 billion yuan, 2.432 billion yuan and 2.906 billion yuan, equivalent to EPS of 1.62/2.03/2.42 yuan / share respectively, and the PE corresponding to the closing price on January 24, 2022 will be 5 times, 4 times and 4 times respectively, with low valuation in the industry. For the first coverage, give a "recommended" rating.
Risk tip: relevant lawsuits may bring potential losses to the company, the construction of Mines under construction is less than expected, and the decline of macroeconomic growth leads to a sharp decline in coal prices.
