\u3000\u3000 Beijing Shengtong Printing Co.Ltd(002599) (002599)
Event overview the company issued a performance forecast. In 2021, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 60-90 million, a year-on-year turnaround (a loss of RMB 346 million in 2020), a decrease of 36% - 57% compared with 2019; Among them, the net profit of the main printing sector was 110-130 million yuan, the loss of the education sector was 40-50 million yuan, and the education sector was lower than expected. In a single quarter, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 was - 10 million yuan to 20 million yuan.
Analysis and judgment:
The printing and packaging sector has a solid profit. According to our analysis, the net profit of the main printing and packaging sector was flat and increased slightly, mainly due to: (1) the expansion of packaging production in Tianjin; (2) After the epidemic, there was a strong demand for pharmaceutical packaging. Although the double reduction policy has an impact on teaching aid printing, the proportion of teaching aid in the company is not high.
The education sector is expected to improve its profitability in the future. According to our analysis, the highest net profit level in the history of the company's education sector is 41 million, mainly from the joining and competition business of Lebo and the consolidation of Zhongming Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) . The losses in 2021 were mainly due to: (1) the epidemic affected the company's Direct stores in Zhengzhou, Xi'an, Nanjing and Beijing; (2) After the double reduction policy, discipline training 21q3 and Q4 were delivered centrally, which affected the offline course scheduling and delivery rate of the company; (3) The company increased R & D investment. As of 2021h, Lebo Lebo has 167 Direct stores and 450 franchise stores. According to our analysis, due to the impact of discipline training competition, the company's enrollment cost is high. With the implementation of the double reduction policy, the full class rate of the company's single store is expected to improve. According to the calculation of the direct single store model, we estimate that the full shift rate of the company's stores is only about 50%, slightly lower than the breakeven line; We estimate that assuming that the full shift rate reaches 70%, the gross profit margin is expected to exceed the level of the same period in 19 years, and we estimate that the profit margin is about 8%. With the further improvement of the full shift rate, the profit margin of mature stores is expected to reach about 20%.
Investment advice
According to our analysis, the focus of the company in the future is: the education sector pays attention to the post double reduction era, the competition of discipline training is weakened, and the full class rate of quality education is expected to increase. In previous years, the winter and summer holidays were generally the peak season of discipline training. This year, the company ushered in the first winter vacation after the double reduction, and the full class rate is expected to improve and bring about the repair of net interest rate. However, under the background of the disturbance of the epidemic, we remain cautious and optimistic.
Considering that the net profit in 2021 is lower than expected, the revenue forecast for 2021-23 is maintained at 24.42/27.76/31.34 billion yuan, the forecast of net profit attributable to parent company is reduced from 166 / 204 / 244 million yuan to 76 / 131 / 146 million yuan, EPS is reduced from 0.31/0.37/0.45 yuan to 0.14/0.24/0.27 yuan, and the closing price on January 21, 2022 is 6.07 yuan, corresponding to 44 / 25 / 23x PE in 21 / 22 / 23 years respectively. It is optimistic that the improvement of full shift rate will bring about the repair of net interest rate for a long time, Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Market competition intensifies risks, the company's strategy implementation does not meet expectations, and systemic risks.
