\u3000\u3000 Zhejiang Cfmoto Power Co.Ltd(603129) (603129)
Event overview
The first mass production model ae8 of Chunfeng zeeho brand was officially released, positioning high-performance pedal electric motorcycle. The price of standard version and performance version S + was 1.90 yuan (the combined price of the first batch of users before June 30, 2022 was 18000 yuan) and 21700 yuan respectively, and the delivery time was March 2022 and August 2022 respectively.
Analysis and judgment:
Polar core ae8 officially released two wheel electric motorcycle supply drive
Electrification is the general development trend of the two wheeled vehicle industry. Previously, electric automatic vehicles (with a speed of less than 25km / h) were mainly used to replace small displacement motorcycles. It is expected that the replacement of 50-100km / h fuel motorcycles will accelerate in the next few years, while pure fun motorcycles above 100km / h are relatively slow. According to the data of China Automobile Association, the sales of electric motorcycles above 50km / h in China reached 2.512 million in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 21.1%.
In December 2020, the company released the new energy sub brand zeeho (Chinese name "Jihe"), which officially entered the field of electric motorcycles to meet urban travel needs in an all-round way and complement the CFMOTO brand. The ae8 released this time is the first mass production model of zeeho brand, positioning high-performance pedal electric motorcycle, taking into account the needs of commuting and playing. The price of standard version and performance version S + is 19000 yuan and 21700 yuan respectively, with high cost performance. There are few core competitive products at the same level (No. 9 E200, Yadi vflyg, etc.), and it is expected to replace the popular pedal models such as Yamaha and Honda.
In terms of configuration, ae8 has the ultimate design, performance and technology: 1) design: Combat family front face, bow and crossbow function body, large row motorcycle riding triangle; 2) Performance: Central water-cooled motor, peak power of 12.5KW, top speed of 100km / H +, 0-50km / h acceleration of 2.6s, no less than 250cc fuel Scooter; 69v32ah automotive grade high-performance soft pack battery pack, NEDC range of 120km, replaceable, dual lithium battery pack fast charging design; In addition, Brembo caliper, dual channel ABS and high-performance adjustable rear shock absorption; 3) Scientific and technological intelligence: it supports keyless induction unlocking, side support induction, ride induction, intelligent front lock, front and rear assistance implementation, OTA air upgrade, invisible electronic fence, etc.
Medium and large row motorcycles lead consumption upgrading, and two rounds of overseas have become a new growth point
Motorcycle sales volume and performance contribution have increased rapidly. Since 2020, the company has deeply explored the incremental field, and heavy-duty models continue to catalyze:
1) imitation race: 250sr continues to sell well, and the imitation race concept car sr-c21 will appear in mid October 2021, with an estimated displacement of 400cc +;
2) retro streetcar: 700cl-x enriches the engine displacement section and effectively complements the short board of the model pedigree. The entry-level retro 250cl-x will be on the market soon;
3) adventure vehicle: 800mtdomestic adv model with the largest displacement was officially launched at Beijing motor show in May, which is another popular model with large displacement;
4) public upgrade: the first domestic public upgrade model cf1250 improves the brand value and product price range of CFMOTO;
5) joint venture sector: joint venture with KTM to produce models of KTM and Husqvarna brands, forming a high, medium and low matching with CFMOTO brand.
Since 2021, after the four-wheel overseas market position has been gradually stabilized, the focus of the company's overseas market has gradually shifted to two rounds. In 2021, the two-wheel spring breeze exports totaled 25800 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 209.4%. In the future, it is expected to form two new growth poles overseas with the help of overseas channels and brand advantages, and move towards a complete business matrix of [two rounds, four rounds] + [domestic sales, export].
The leading position of all terrain vehicle export is stable, and we will deeply explore the American market
The company is the first all terrain vehicle manufacturer in China and the seventh largest all terrain vehicle manufacturer in the world. The export volume of 2021h1 all terrain vehicle accounts for 69.4% of the national export volume, and ranks first in many European developed countries. The United States is the world's largest all terrain vehicle market. In recent years, the company has concentrated resources to conquer the American market and set up CFP and CFF subsidiaries in the United States. The epidemic has boosted the rapid increase of market share since the first half of 2021.
According to the data of China Automobile Association, in December 2021, the company exported 19700 four-wheel vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 94.0% and a month on month increase of + 15.2%. The monthly export reached a record high. In 2021, a total of 164900 vehicles were exported, with a year-on-year increase of + 126.6%. Considering the low inventory of overseas terminals and the company's North American channel development, it is expected that the high boom will continue in 2022, and it is expected to export 250000 + vehicles in the whole year. The recent market focus is mainly on the possibility of tariff exemption for ATV models exported to North America. At present, the probability is high. If the tariff exemption is successful and considering the elasticity of freight reduction, it is expected to increase profits by 300 / 400 + million yuan from 2022 to 2023 respectively.
Investment advice
The company's medium and large displacement motorcycle business benefited from the launch of popular models and market expansion, and the sales volume continued to rise; Zeeho Electric brand is complementary to CFMOTO brand according to the demand of scientific and technological travel; The all terrain vehicle business has deeply tapped the potential of the U.S. market, and its leading position in export has been continuously strengthened. Considering the impact of equity incentive fee, short-term tariff, shipping, exchange rate and other disturbing factors, as well as the continuous exceeding of expectations of two and four rounds of exports, the profit forecast is adjusted. It is estimated that the company's revenue in 2021-2023 will be adjusted from RMB 8.14/113.5/14.28 billion to RMB 8.14/122.2/15.38 billion, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be adjusted from RMB 514/8.70/11.12 billion to RMB 464/8.02/11.19 billion, EPS is adjusted from 3.42/5.80/7.41 yuan to 3.09/5.34/7.45 yuan, corresponding to the closing price of 163.34 yuan / share on January 21, 2022, and PE is 53 / 31 / 22 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The tightening of motorcycle prohibition and restriction policies has led to the decline of motorcycle demand in China; Foreign brands lead to intensified market competition; Sea freight continued to rise.
