\u3000\u3000 Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) (300413)
Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) disclosed the performance forecast for 21 years, and it is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.04-2.14 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.92% – 7.96%; The net profit after deducting non-profit was RMB 2.0-2.1 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 8.33% – 13.75%. Split in a single quarter. In 21q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 60-160 million in a single quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 83.8% – 56.8%. Due to the restructuring of the three subsidiaries of mango film and television, mango entertainment and Shanghai mango mutual entertainment, they are currently in the period of business integration and transformation, and the main business indicators have decreased; At the same time, mango tv21q4’s online core projects are limited, which superimposes the macroeconomic impact. We expect to have a certain impact on the overall active users and advertising. The performance of 21q4 is lower than the previous expectation.
The core business grew steadily throughout the year. In the past 21 years, the revenue growth of advertising and operators of the company has exceeded 30%, maintaining high-quality growth. At the end of the year, the number of effective members of mango TV reached 50.4 million, a year-on-year increase of 40%. Xiaomang, a trendy domestic content e-commerce platform in the period of strategic cultivation, has a peak daily activity of 1.26 million in 21 years.
21q4 company has limited project scheduling and broadcasting, and the active users of the platform have dropped. After mango TV’s blockbuster variety “brother cutting through thorns” was launched in August, it achieved a good harvest in traffic and reputation, and ranked second in the effective broadcasting of cloud data variety in October of 21. However, due to the lack of variety and drama projects in the back of “brother”, mango tv21q4mau was 210 million, down 11.0% month on month, dau was 28.69 million, down 29.5% month on month.
2022 will be rich in content reserves, laying the foundation for growth in the new year. In terms of variety shows, “comprehensive n generation” goes hand in hand with innovative variety shows. “Zong n generation” reserves include “sister 3 riding the wind and waves”, “brother 2 cutting through thorns”, “big detective 7”, “secret room escape 4”, etc. The new variety track includes “endless sound”, “the beginning of reasoning”, “delayed departure in spring”, etc. In terms of dramas, it includes head dramas such as Shangshi and juvenile school 2, mango monsoon plan, preparation of Zhang Weiguo’s summer, wife’s choice, etc.
Multi dimensional promotion of meta universe related businesses and keeping up with the tide of science and technology. The company will promote the construction of mango planet meta universe by stages with high-quality VR content as the entrance, film and game VR content technology and virtual character image technology as the means, and digital art collection trading platform as the auxiliary. Virtual hosts have launched “Xiaoyang” and “Yaoyao”, and the company’s digital collection trading platform is actively planning. Mango vision under mango media is committed to the research and application of XR, while mango infinity focuses on the R & D and application of 5g, digital human production and virtual content production and broadcasting technology.
Investment suggestion: mango’s competitiveness in the field of long video platform has been continuously improved, and the new format of the series, e-commerce, offline entertainment and the layout of meta universe have been actively promoted, which will help users break the circle and explore diversified cash realization modes. The company’s short-term performance is under pressure, but we believe that mango’s core business is still on the track of healthy development. At the same time, mango is a media platform with state-owned background, adheres to the guidance of values, and benefits from the integration of state-owned media and the Internet antitrust policy of private enterprises. Considering the Q4 performance forecast and the rhythm of subsequent projects, we lowered the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 21 to 23 years to 2.1 billion / 2.58 billion / 3.19 billion (the previous value was 2.4 billion / 3.05 billion / 3.67 billion), with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.69% / 23.2% / 23.4% respectively, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk tip: the growth of members and traffic does not meet expectations, the progress of the project does not meet expectations, the willingness of advertisers to launch is uncertain, the supervision of industry and Internet platform is becoming stricter, and the performance forecast is only the preliminary calculation results. Please refer to the annual performance announcement.
