\u3000\u3000 Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) (601633)
Key points of announcement: in 2021, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) the operating revenue reached 136.317 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 31.95%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 6.782 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.47%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was 4.289 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 11.80%. In 2021q4, the operating revenue reached 45.520 billion yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 10.58% / + 57.68% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.837 billion yuan, with a month on month ratio of – 33.79% / + 29.76% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non profits was 636 million yuan, with a month on month ratio of – 67.53% / – 21.58% respectively.
Q4 single vehicle revenue rose sharply on a month on month basis, and the product structure was significantly improved; The increase in the proportion of sales of new energy vehicles + the increase in cost investment on a month on month basis affected the performance of the quarter: 1) the total wholesale sales of 2021q4 Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) reached 396900 vehicles, which were -7.89% / + 49.32% on a month on month basis respectively. The operating revenue performed better than the wholesale sales on a month on month basis, mainly due to the improvement of product structure, the increase in the proportion of sales of high priced models such as tanks, and the corresponding decline in the proportion of sales such as Harvard. The sales volume of Q4 tank brand accounted for 8.06%, with a month on month ratio of + 8.06pct / + 0.73pct respectively; Haval brand accounted for 56.99%, with a month on month ratio of -13.84pct / -0.31pct respectively. Q4 single vehicle revenue was 114700 yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 20.05% / + 5.59%. In 2021, the annual single vehicle revenue was 106400 yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 14.43%. 2) The net profit of 2021q4 single vehicle was 4600 yuan, with a month on month ratio of – 28.12% / – 13.10% respectively. After deducting the net profit of non single vehicle was 16000 yuan, with a month on month ratio of – 64.75% / – 47.48% respectively, which was mainly due to the increase in the sales proportion of new energy vehicles with relatively poor profitability and the increase in the cost rate. The sales volume of Q4 Euler brand accounted for 12.67%, with a month on month ratio of + 5.18pct / + 0.56pct respectively; The increase in expense rate is mainly due to the impact of Q4 Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) own equity incentive expense accrual + Euler cat event compensation expense and year-end bonus for employees at the end of the year. Looking forward to 2022, the shortage of chips will continue to ease, and Great Wall’s undelivered orders in 2021 are expected to achieve large-scale delivery; In terms of new cars, the six major brands take Euler / WeiPai / tank as the core, more than 10 new models such as ballet cat / lightning cat / dream fulfillment / tank 700 / tank 800 have been listed one after another, high-end intelligent electric vehicles have been continuously overweight, and the sales volume is expected to continue to break through.
In the long run, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) ushers in a big industry cycle under the background of favorable climate, favorable location and people: the transformation of the automotive industry into an electric intelligent industry, the Great Wall’s transformation to a global technology travel company driven by organizational change + full stack self-research of core technologies + super product definition ability + continuous innovation of marketing model as its core competitiveness. In terms of technology, the two subsidiaries of honeycomb energy + milli smart bank promote the comprehensive self-study of the core technology of electric intelligence; In terms of products, the seven brands of Haval / pickup truck / WeiPai / Euler / tank / Salon / beam are comprehensively upward, focusing on different market segments to achieve targeted leading breakthroughs; At the sales end, we will combine distribution with direct marketing, accelerate the layout of overseas markets, and radiate different overseas regions with Brazil + Russia + Thailand. It is expected to achieve the annual sales target of 4 million in the global market in 2025.
Profit forecast and investment rating: considering the shortage of chips and the upward trend of cost side, we lowered the expected net profit attributable to the parent company from Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) 2021 to 2023 from 72 / 127 / 17.8 billion yuan to 68 / 110 / 17.1 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.74/1.20/1.86 yuan and PE of 60 / 37 / 24 times respectively. The new round of product cycle continues to be in high volume, with the fundamental performance leading the industry, optimistic about Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , and maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: epidemic control is lower than expected; The recovery of passenger car demand is lower than expected
