\u3000\u3000 Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) (600546)
The company is the target of Shanxi national reform and the holding and listing platform of Shanxi coal import and export group. Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) was established in November 2000 and listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in July 2003. The controlling shareholder of the company is Shanxi coal import and Export Group Co., Ltd. (holding 59.98%). In 2020, Shanxi state-owned enterprise reform, Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) group absorbed and merged Shanxi coal import and Export Group, Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) group indirectly controlled Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , and the actual controller is still Shanxi SASAC.
Recently, the company issued a pre increase announcement of 2021 annual performance, and the main financial data are as follows:
In 2021, the company is expected to realize a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies ranging from 4.5 billion yuan to 5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 444% to 505% (or 3.673 billion yuan to 4.173 billion yuan); The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after deduction of non profits was 4.58 billion yuan to 5.08 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 437% to 496% (or 3.727 billion yuan to 4.227 billion yuan).
In the fourth quarter of 2021, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is expected to reach 2.746 billion yuan to 3.246 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1417% to 1693% (or 2.565 billion yuan to 3.065 billion yuan), and a month-on-month increase of 202% to 257%; After deducting non profits, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies ranged from 2.789 billion yuan to 3.289 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2013% to 2392% (or 2.657 billion yuan to 3.157 billion yuan), and a month-on-month increase of 204% to 258%.
The performance growth is mainly due to the continuous rise of coal market price, and the company’s profitability has increased significantly. The pricing of the company’s coal business is market-oriented. According to the company’s announcement, the raw coal output in the first three quarters of 2021 was 29.38 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%; The sales volume of commercial coal was 52.42 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 36.3%. The main reason for the decline of the company’s commercial coal sales is that the company has compressed the trading coal business with low gross profit, and there is no significant change in the production and sales of self-produced coal. The market price of power coal fluctuated sharply in the fourth quarter, and the profitability of the company increased significantly month on month. The average price of Qinhuangdao Power coal market price (q5500) in the fourth quarter was 1350 yuan / ton, up 208 yuan / ton compared with the third quarter (1142 yuan / ton), up 18%. The company’s coal pricing was partial to marketization, and the operating rate of mining enterprises was relatively sufficient under the supply guarantee situation, and the performance continued to improve in the fourth quarter. In addition, in September 2021, Hequ Huolinhe Opencut Coal Industry Corporation Limited Of Inner Mongolia(002128) , a subsidiary of the company, purchased 40% of the equity of Hequ energy held by Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) group new energy Co., Ltd. in cash. After the completion of this transaction, Hequ Huolinhe Opencut Coal Industry Corporation Limited Of Inner Mongolia(002128) held 90% of the equity of Hequ energy and became the controlling shareholder of Hequ energy. The comparative accounting statements were adjusted according to the business combination under the same control.
The impairment loss of large assets is continuously accrued, and the asset quality is continuously optimized. Since 2013, the company has accrued large asset impairment losses for many consecutive years, reaching 7.86 billion yuan from 2013 to 2020. According to the company’s report in the third quarter of 2021, the company has accrued credit impairment losses of 590 million yuan. Through asset impairment for many consecutive years, the company’s asset quality has been continuously optimized.
Photovoltaic heterojunction business needs further demonstration. The company funded the establishment of heterojunction project company to carry out the phase I project of high efficiency heterojunction (hjt) Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) battery industrialization. Recently, the company said on the investor interaction platform that the production of heterojunction battery has changed greatly from raw material supply, production equipment, production process to battery efficiency. Industry experts have been invited to demonstrate the project again and promote the project according to the demonstration.
Profit forecast and Valuation: we predict that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 4.75/4.941/5.003 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 475%, 4% and 1%, equivalent to EPS of RMB 2.40/2.49/2.52/share respectively. The current share price (RMB 9.92 / share) corresponds to PE of 4.1/4.0/3.9 times respectively. Considering the upward movement of the price center in the coal market, the company’s coal pricing is market-oriented, The increase in the proportion of self-produced coal business led to the increase in gross profit margin, the continuous optimization of asset quality, the first coverage, and the “buy” rating of the company.
Risk tips: 1) risk of coal price falling more than expected. (2) Safety production risk. (3) The public materials used in the research report may have the risk of information lag or untimely update.
