\u3000\u3000 Runa Smart Equipment Co.Ltd(301129) (301129)
The top-level design scheme for energy conservation and emission reduction in the 14th five year plan was released to accelerate the release of energy-saving demand for heating. The State Council issued the comprehensive work plan for energy conservation and emission reduction in the 14th five year plan, which requires to ensure the completion of the energy conservation and emission reduction targets in the 14th five year plan, lay a solid foundation for achieving the carbon peak and carbon neutralization targets, and have a clear attitude towards promoting energy conservation and emission reduction in the medium and long term. The plan focuses on "promoting the elimination of coal-fired boilers and loose coal within the coverage of heating pipe network". According to the data of the Ministry of housing and urban rural development, 38% / 10% of China's urban hot water / steam heating heat will come from boiler rooms in 2020. Coal-fired boilers are one of the main heat sources of China's urban heating network at present, and their accelerated elimination may further increase the heat shortage in the current dual carbon and dual control environment, Promote the demand for heating and energy conservation. At the same time, the plan also proposes to "fully tap the heating potential" and promote the energy-saving transformation of heating facilities and equipment such as industrial parks and public institutions, which is expected to further promote the release of demand in the heating and energy-saving industry.
The investment in urban heating pipe network is expected to speed up and promote the continuous improvement of heating energy-saving investment. Recently, the management instructed that the pipeline reconstruction and construction must be taken as an important infrastructure project in the 14th five year plan. Heating is an important part of urban pipe network. At present, the heating pipe network in many areas of China is aging seriously with the increase of service life, resulting in the waste of water resources and energy; On the other hand, there is often a lack of heating control means, resulting in excessive or insufficient heating and complaints from residents. Heating energy-saving transformation is an important means to improve the reliability, adjustability and operation efficiency of urban heat supply network. It is expected that with the acceleration of urban heating pipe network investment, it is expected to promote the continuous improvement of heating energy-saving market demand, and the relevant subdivision leaders are expected to meet the accelerated growth period.
The strength of heating energy-saving products is strong, and it is expected to benefit from the trend of increasing demand in the industry. The company is a leading enterprise in heating energy-saving system. Its products cover the core heating links such as heat source, heat network, heat station and heat users, which can meet the needs of customers for differentiated and customized products. It is one of the few integrated production and development enterprises of heating management system in China, with prominent industry position and rich customer resources. In terms of hardware, from the comparison of public data, the company's core products such as ultrasonic heat meter and intelligent heat exchange unit have stronger performance than their peers. In terms of software, the intelligent heating software platform developed by the company based on the accumulation of long-term project data can reduce building heat consumption and carbon emission by 10% - 30% and power consumption by 30% - 60% on the premise of improving the heating guarantee capacity, with outstanding performance advantages. At the same time, the company continues to increase regional market expansion, AI new product development and capacity expansion. At the time of accelerating the release of demand in the heating and energy-saving industry, the company is expected to benefit as a leading enterprise in the industry.
Investment suggestion: we expect the company to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 173 / 237 / 323 million respectively from 2021 to 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 33% / 37% / 36%, EPS of RMB 2.35/3.21/4.38 respectively (CAGR of 2020-2023 is 35%), and the corresponding PE of the current stock price is 30 / 22 / 16 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: policy promotion is less than expected risk, technology development risk, new business and new market development are less than expected risk, etc.
