\u3000\u3000 Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) (300122)
Event: the company released the performance forecast for 21 years and realized the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 9.904-10.564 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 200-220%; The net profit deducted from non profit was RMB 9.969-10.633 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 200-220%. Among them, Q4 realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.50-2.16 billion in a single quarter, with a year-on-year increase of 82-162%.
The performance forecast is in line with expectations. It is expected that the company’s independent products will maintain a high-speed growth trend in 21 years. The agent products HPV and five price wheel are affected by the batch issuance in the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, the overall high-speed growth is significantly restored, showing a situation of low in the first half and high in the second half of the year. Due to the price fluctuation of covid-19 vaccine throughout the year, the performance shows a trend of high before and low after. Later, we think we can pay attention to the expansion of covid-19 vaccine in the international market. At present, the company has been approved for emergency use in Indonesia, Colombia, Uzbekistan and other countries.
The company’s R & D pipeline continues to advance and is expected to continue to provide growth power in the next few years. The preventive micro card and EC diagnostic reagent of heavy products in the company’s R & D pipeline have been approved. It is expected to contribute a large profit in 2022 and increase the proportion of independent profit. Other products, such as 23 valent pneumonia polysaccharide vaccine, human diploid rabies vaccine (which has been announced to obtain the clinical summary report and will be reported for production soon), tetravalent influenza vaccine, 15 valent pneumonia vaccine, tetravalent meningitis combination, dysentery bivalent and other products, are in clinical phase III. EV71 vaccine and tetravalent norovirus vaccine are in clinical phase I to phase II and will be gradually put on sale in the next few years, Provide a driving force for sustainable development, and the company’s R & D pipeline valuation remodeling continues.
Profit forecast: covid-19 vaccine is expected to significantly improve the company’s performance. At the same time, we expect the epidemic to show a normalization trend. Due to the large amount of contribution to the performance, we will not consider covid-19 forecast for the time being. The company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 is expected to be 4.701 billion yuan, 6.229 billion yuan and 8.113 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 42%, 33% and 30%; EPS is 2.94 yuan, 3.89 yuan and 5.07 yuan respectively. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: HPV sales are lower than expected; Uncertainty of product R & D progress.
