\u3000\u3000 Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) (002001)
Event: the company released the performance forecast for 2021. In the 21st year, the company is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 4.1-4.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 15% - 35%; Among them, Q4 achieved a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 700-1.4 billion in a single quarter, with a year-on-year increase of 17% - 130% and a month on month change of - 24% - 51%.
Comments:
The volume and price of main products increased simultaneously, and the performance of 21 years increased rapidly year-on-year: the average prices of VA, VE, 2% biotin and solid methionine in China in 21 years were 316 yuan / kg, 80 yuan / kg, 69 yuan / kg and 20 yuan / kg respectively, with a year-on-year increase of - 19%, + 24%, - 62% and + 2% respectively. In the past 21 years, the volume and price of the company's main products ve and solid methionine increased simultaneously, and the company's performance in the past 21 years increased significantly year-on-year. Looking at 21q4 in a single quarter, the average prices of VA, VE, 2% biotin and solid methionine in China were 286 yuan / kg, 89 yuan / kg, 81 yuan / kg and 20 yuan / kg respectively, with a year-on-year increase of - 5%, + 49%, + 2% and + 19% respectively. The price of main products of 21q4 company increased year-on-year, and the performance of 21q4 company increased rapidly year-on-year. Looking forward to 22 years, the epidemic situation will be gradually controlled, the downstream demand will continue to recover, the company's biological fermentation phase I products will be gradually in large quantities, and the biological fermentation phase II will be gradually put into operation. The ve business cycle is expected to continue, and the company's performance in 22 years is expected to grow rapidly.
Adiponitrile has entered the pilot stage, and methionine production capacity is released to consolidate the cost advantage: adiponitrile is the raw material for the production of nylon 66. The company has experience in hydrocyanic acid industry. Through independent research and development, adiponitrile products are successfully prepared by adopting the most advanced butadiene production process with cost advantage. At present, it is in the pilot stage. The company uses cyanohydrin method to efficiently produce methionine. The trial production of 50000 T / a solid egg production capacity in phase I of 17 years has been completed. At present, it is in full load operation. The 100000 t / a solid egg production capacity in phase II project will be put into production in 20 years and 150000 T / a solid methionine is expected to be put into operation in 23 years. At that time, the company will become a leading methionine enterprise in China. In December 21, the company joined hands with Sinopec subsidiary Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. to jointly invest 3 billion in the layout of methionine project. The company continues to expand production in the methionine field, relying on the advantages of scale, the cost continues to decline, and the future growth can be expected.
API is expected to become a new growth point of future performance: Recently, the company's projects with an annual output of 500 tons of Kalon anhydride, 500 tons of azabicyclic acid and 800 tons of sodium sulfate participated in the EIA publicity, with a project investment of 140 million yuan, and the company's API business is expected to usher in a new growth point. Using the original product isopentenol, the company continues to extend downstream and layout the industrial chain of "isopentenol caronic anhydride azabicyclic". Caron anhydride is the key intermediate of Pfizer covid-19 oral small molecule drug. The multi-step reaction of Caron anhydride can be used to produce azabicycles, which can be used to produce Pfizer covid-19 oral small molecule drug. The emergence of Pfizer covid-19 oral drugs is expected to become a powerful weapon for epidemic prevention and control. In November 21, Pfizer authorized the production of generic drugs of the drug. After the company's 500 tons of Kalon anhydride, 500 tons of azabicyclic acid and 800 tons of sodium sulfate were put into operation, it is expected to enter the field of covid-19 oral drugs, with great development potential in the future.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: we maintain the company's profit forecast from 2021 to 2023. It is expected that the company will realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 4.472/51.03/5.732 billion respectively from 2021 to 2023, with the corresponding EPS of RMB 1.73/1.98/2.22 respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the product price fluctuates, the project progress is less than expected, and the global economic recovery is less than expected.
