\u3000\u3000 Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) (601633)
Event: Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) released the 2021 performance express: in 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 136.317 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.95%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 6.782 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.47%.
The overall performance was in line with expectations, and Q4 single vehicle revenue reached a new high. According to the company’s announcement, Q4’s revenue was 45.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.58% and a month on month increase of 57.68%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.837 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 33.81% and a month on month increase of 29.73%. The non net profit deducted from Q4 was 636 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 67.53% and a month on month decrease of 21.58%. Q4 expenses exceeded expectations, non recurring profits and losses (1.201 billion yuan, mainly government subsidies and investment income) significantly contributed to profits, and the overall performance was in line with expectations. Q4 single vehicle revenue reached a record high of 114700 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 19200 yuan and a month on month increase of 6100 yuan. We judge that the main reasons are as follows: 1) the production and sales continued to fall short of demand due to the lack of core in the early stage, and the terminal discount was continuously recovered in the whole year of 21 years; 2) The sales volume of tank 300q4 with higher price accounted for 8.07%, with a year-on-year increase of 8.07 PCT and a month on month increase of 0.73 PCT; The sales volume of Euler good cat Q4 accounted for 6.9%, with a year-on-year increase of 6.4pct and a month on month increase of 2.4pct. (sales source: company announcement and passenger Association)
The initial investment will lead to expenses, dilute profits and build a strong background for the Great Wall for a long time. Combined with the announcement, we judge that the main reasons for the decline of Q4 deduction non net profit are: 1) Q4 accrues equity incentive expenses, which is expected to be about 500 million yuan; 2) In order to support the expansion of R & D talents and the rapid growth of production and marketing scale, the number of employees increases, resulting in an increase in salary expenses and year-end bonus provision; 3) According to Euler’s official wechat, Euler good cat released charging equity compensation in December, and the estimated cost is about 450 million yuan. In the long run, equity incentive and salary increase are conducive to promoting the transformation of employees to partners and stimulating the vitality of the enterprise; In addition, the company is determined to increase R & D investment in the fields of battery, hydrogen energy, powertrain and intelligence, build a strong background of the great wall and consolidate its long-term competitiveness. With the continuous improvement of the follow-up production and marketing scale, the profitability is expected to be gradually released.
Open a strong product cycle and be optimistic about the rise of volume and profit in 22 years. Haval beast (priced at RMB 13-167000) delivered 6733 vehicles in the first month of listing, highlighting the potential of explosion; Nearly 3000 latte DHT (priced at RMB 159800-179800) will be delivered in the first month of listing, which is expected to continue climbing, and dream fulfillment and new MPV models will also be listed one after another; According to autohome, the order of 500 tanks (pre-sale 335000-395000 yuan) exceeds 22000 on the first day of pre-sale, and delivery is about to begin. It is expected to sell well and contribute to significant performance increment; Ballet cat / lightning cat / punk cat is expected to drive the ASP of Euler brand upward and improve profitability; According to the company’s official wechat, the Great Wall pickup truck has been listed in more than 50 countries on four continents around the world, and is expected to continue to explore more overseas markets and contribute to the increase of sales volume; On the first day of pre-sale of the first model of high-end brand salon, 101 sets of global limited edition were sold out within 3 hours, and delivery is expected to be started on Q3. With the launch of new models with higher prices by various brands, it is expected to usher in a simultaneous increase in volume and profit in 22 years, bringing significant performance flexibility. (sales source: Passenger Union)
Investment suggestion: as the orders of key new models exceeded expectations, we raised the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 to 6.78 billion yuan, 11.50 billion yuan and 15.57 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to the current market value, PE was 58.9, 34.7 and 25.7 times respectively, maintaining the six-month target price of 72.0 yuan / share, corresponding to 57.6 times PE in 2022, and maintaining the “Buy-A” rating.
Risk tip: there is a continuous shortage of chips, the sales of new models are less than expected, and the overseas business expansion is less than expected.
