\u3000\u3000 Eyebright Medical Technology(Beijing) Co.Ltd(688050) (688050)
Event: the company released the performance forecast for 2021. In 2021, the company expects to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 160-180 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 65.70% ~ 86.42%, deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 140-156 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 56.11 ~ 73.95%. According to the median value, in 2021q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 30 million, a year-on-year increase of + 7.5%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was RMB 27 million, a year-on-year increase of + 17.9%.
High performance, growth in line with expectations. The company has achieved 66% ~ 86% growth in net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 years, which is in line with our previous expectations; The apparent growth rate of 21q4 performance is low. On the one hand, it is the disturbance of the epidemic situation, on the other hand, it is the disturbance of the expenses accrued in the incentive plan. The overall incentive expenses of the company in 21 years are about 12-15 million yuan. Assuming that 6.5 million yuan is accrued in Q4, the net profit returned to the parent company in 21q4 is 37 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 31%.
OK mirror continues its high growth momentum. According to the company's announcement, the sales volume of "Punuo pupil" corneal plastic lens in 2021 is expected to increase by more than 110% compared with the same period of last year; According to the company's 20-year annual report, the company sold more than 100000 OK mirrors in 20 years, so the company sold at least 210000 OK mirrors in 21 years. According to the company's semi annual report data and the third quarterly report data, our model estimates that the company's OK mirror revenue in 21 years is about 104 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 152%. While the OK mirror is rapidly expanding, we expect the number of terminals covered by the company to increase rapidly, the bargaining power is gradually improved, and the average unit price of products shows an upward trend.
Intraocular lens overcome difficulties and achieve high growth. According to the company's announcement, the sales volume of "pronomin" and other series of intraocular lenses in 2021 is expected to increase by more than 40% compared with the same period of last year. According to the information disclosed in the semi annual report and the third quarterly report, our model estimates that the company's intraocular lens revenue was close to 330 million in 21 years, with a growth rate of more than 45%, and still maintained a high growth trend. The company's procurement of intraocular lenses in the provincial alliance and the local multiple covid-19 epidemic in 21q3 / Q4 China have led to a phased reduction in cataract visits. Under the adverse circumstances, the company still achieved high growth, showing the company's rich product line and strong innovation profitability.
The effect of employee incentive measures is obvious, and the subsequent growth is expected to be significantly higher than the upper limit of performance commitment. The company's previous incentive plan fully met the unlocking conditions: the compound growth rate of adjusted net profit from 2021 to 2024 relative to 2020 shall not be less than 45%, 40%, 35% and 35%; The adjusted net profit was 140 million yuan, 189 million yuan, 238 million yuan and 321 million yuan respectively. According to the current business development and performance release trend of the company, the actual performance of the company will far exceed the incentive requirements.
Profit forecast: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 171 million yuan, 245 million yuan and 346 million yuan respectively, with the corresponding growth rates of 76.9%, 43.6% and 41.0% respectively; EPS is 1.62 yuan, 2.33 yuan and 3.29 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 113x, 79x and 56x respectively. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the impact of intensive intraocular lens mining exceeded expectations; The growth rate of corneal plastic lens was lower than expected; The intensified competition of corneal plastic lens leads to the decline of growth rate; The incentive effect is less than expected.
